Developed Countries
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that the German yield curve will invert and that German 10-year Bunds are a buy. Even though a global recession looms, central banks are unlikely to pause their tightening cycles until inflation…
The September CPI report was disappointing, but we still see several signs pointing to a rapid decline in inflation. Our constructive near-term view on stocks and the economy remains intact.
The ECB will continue to lift rates due to sticky inflation and a tight labor market. Will it be enough to push long-term German yields higher?
On the surface, the US retail sales report for September was weaker than expected. The level of overall retail sales was unchanged – a slowdown from 0.4% m/m in August and disappointing expectations of a 0.2% m/m increase. However, this headline figure…
Output from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model is often used to obtain a timely read of economic conditions in the US. The GDPNow model has been consistently predicting positive quarter-on-quarter growth for Q3. Its latest estimate on Friday suggests that GDP…
Following a six-day stretch of falling equity prices, the S&P 500 jumped by 2.6% on Thursday. The timing of the abrupt reversal was curious. It occurred on the day of the hotter-than-anticipated September CPI inflation report. The initial sharp selloff…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the kinked Phillips curve framework predicts that inflation may fall fairly painlessly over the coming months. According to the kinked Phillips curve framework if we are on the steep side of…
A country’s external balance remains one of the key pillars of the longer-term trend for the exchange rate. In this week’s report, we look at the developments in global basic balances, and their implications for currency strategy.
US headline CPI growth accelerated to 0.4% m/m in September from 0.1% m/m, surpassing expectations of a milder 0.2% m/m increase. The core measure excluding food and energy grew at the same rate as August (0.6% m/m) but still exceeded the 0.4% m/m…
The US economic surprise index – which measures the extent to which the economic data is either beating or missing economists’ forecasts – has recently moved back into positive territory. A move above zero indicates that economists have been overly…