Developed Countries
Markets may be bracing for April 2, but the real surprise could be how unsurprising it ends up being. Our Chart Of The Week comes from GeoMacro Chief Strategist Marko Papic, who sees the looming tariff salvo as the peak of de-globalization panic. With Beltway…
February US PCE data adds to the stagflationary tone, reinforcing our overweight duration stance and tactical short in front-end rates. Core PCE inflation rose 0.4% m/m, lifting the year-on-year rate to 2.8%, matching the Fed’s 2025 projection. Headline held…
This morning’s weak consumer spending and strong inflation data reinforce our sense that the US economy is heading toward recession.
Macro momentum is deteriorating rapidly, and we remain defensively positioned as risks build. Business and consumer confidence have fallen sharply, and while the US post-election period began with optimism, policy uncertainty has since taken over, prompting a…
UK financial conditions have tightened just as economic surprises have turned negative, an uncomfortable combination that reinforces our tactical positioning. We remain overweight UK gilts within a global bond portfolio and are tactically short GBP/USD from…
The US economy has never entered a demand-driven recession without labour demand running below labour supply and without the job vacancy rate running below the unemployment rate. Right now though, US labour demand is still running 1.7 million workers above labour supply, and the job vacancy rate is running comfortably above the unemployment rate. This suggests that the labour market is still supply-constrained, and that a demand-driven recession is not imminent. We discuss the investment implications. Plus, more about our ‘trade of the century’: long cotton versus coffee.
Our US Investment Strategy team recommends investors remain defensively positioned. Stay underweight US equities and overweight Treasuries and cash, on both a tactical and cyclical horizon, as the likelihood of a midyear recession continues to rise. With key…
UK inflation came in cooler than expected in February, but lingering price pressures and a still-firm labor market keep the BoE sidelined, for now. Our Global Fixed-Income strategists view the BoE as the most likely DM central bank to surprise on the dovish…
A drop in core capex orders points to slowing business spending and softening global growth. Businesses appear to have front-loaded shipments ahead of potential tariffs while deferring new orders amid policy uncertainty. With hiring and capex plans softening…
Our European investment strategists recommend underweighting European equities over the next three-to-six months, favoring defensives like telecoms, which may also benefit from reform potential. The rally in European equities looks overstretched, with…