Developed Countries
February US retail sales were mixed, with the headline number missing expectations at only 0.2% m/m. January’s reading was revised down to -1.2%. Core measures (excluding gas & autos) were roughly in line with estimates, but the control group saw a 1.0%…
Despite our Global Investment strategists’ bearish stance, their latest report reviews scenarios that could be bullish for equities. Our colleagues remain bearish on equities, expecting a US recession this year. However, several upside scenarios could…
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Arthur Budaghyan, Chief Emerging Markets/China strategist. Arthur highlights a key risk for the global economy, and its implication for the US dollar. By and large, the US economy has been the only source of global…
Gold is testing the $3,000/oz level. The yellow metal had a great run, outperforming every DM currency for the past few months. Despite rising real yields since the beginning of the year, gold prices are up nearly 15%.The relationship between real yields and…
The preliminary March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates, falling to 57.9 from 64.7. The decrease came from both the assessment of current conditions and expectations, with the latter falling almost 10 points. Measures of 1-year…
This week, our three screeners cover equity plays in US OAS Spreads, US Exceptionalism, and “DIVE”.
A reoccurring theme in client discussions has been how cheap US small-cap equities could siphon allocation away from their richly-valued large-cap peers. But valuations are no one’s friend in a drawdown. While the S&P 500 is in correction territory at 10%…
Our Global Fixed Income team wrote a primer on the Canadian provincial bond market, an overlooked yet substantial market. Canadian provincial bonds are a major segment of the country's fixed income market, with spreads primarily driven by fiscal…
The February US Producer Price Index came in below estimates, with the headline measure showing no monthly change and standing at 3.2% y/y. Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services) was also cooler than expected, coming in at 0.2% m/m (3.3%…
The February US CPI came in cooler than expected. Headline inflation decelerated to 0.2% m/m (2.8% y/y), as did core which now stands at 3.1% y/y. Core services inflation declined while core goods inflation was roughly unchanged. Inflation is headed…