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Developed Countries

US: Inflation And Wage Growth Cool
December PCE inflation was in line with expectations, with headline inflation at 0.3% m/m (2.6% y/y) and core at 0.2% m/m (2.8% y/y). The Q4 employment cost index also came in line with expectations at 0.9% q/q. Inflation is currently running below the Fed’s…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Economic Roundup

Core PCE inflation came in soft this morning and is tracking well below the Fed’s 2025 forecast. We highlight three upside risks to inflation and preview next week’s employment report.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
ECB: Steady As She Goes

The ECB cut its deposit rate to 2.75%, as was widely anticipated. President Christine Lagarde did not provide any fireworks, but the Governing Council’s message was clear: Policy is restrictive, and inflation will fall further. As a result, if we combine our economic forecasts for the Eurozone with Frankfurt’s data dependency, we continue to expect the ECB’s deposit rate to settle below 2%. Consequently, German bond yields have downside, and the euro has yet to bottomed.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
US GDP: Keep An Eye On Consumption
Advanced Q4 US GDP missed estimates, slowing down to 2.3% quarterly annualized growth from 3.1%. The weakness was however driven by inventories. Consumer spending beat estimates and accelerated to 4.2% from 3.7% in Q3. Growth is still above trend as the US…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
2025 Global Inflation Outlook: Opportunities In Inflation-Linked Bonds
Our Global Fixed Income strategists assessed the risk of a second wave of inflation, and discussed the opportunities within the inflation-linked bond (ILB) market. Global disinflation remains on track, though energy prices and tariffs pose upside risks.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
ECB Cuts On Its Way To Neutral
The ECB cut by 25 bps as expected, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.75%. Despite avoiding committing to a path for policy, President Lagarde reiterated the disinflationary process is “well on track”, and did not push against current market pricing,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Fed Enters Wait-And-See Mode
The Federal Reserve kept rates on hold in its 4.25%-to-4.5% range, as expected. The main change in the statement was the removal of the reference to progress towards the Fed’s 2% target, leaving instead a simple mention that inflation “remains somewhat…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Europe: Rate Cuts Will Only Help Growth With A Delay
The January 2025 ECB bank lending survey saw a net tightening of credit standards in Q4 2024. Credit standards were tightened for business and consumer lending, and were roughly unchanged for home mortgage loans. Banks expect further tightening across all…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Bank of Canada: Stuck The Landing, Now Weighing Impacts Of Trade War
The Bank of Canada cut by 25 bps to 3% as expected, and announced the end of quantitative tightening. This sixth consecutive cut brings the policy rate further into neutral territory, estimated to be in the 2.25%-to-3.25% range.  The BoC assessed…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Don’t Put The Monetary Cart Before The Fiscal Horse

Jay Powell didn’t say much at this afternoon’s FOMC press conference, and monetary policy will continue to take a back seat to fiscal for the next few months.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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