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Developed Countries

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Trump Still Has A Path

Despite the disastrous performance by former President Trump in the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, there are still paths for him to come back to power. The economy and global instability could flare up anytime between now and election day, while quirks in the Electoral College ensure that the election will be close. The race is still competitive and policy uncertainty and volatility will be elevated.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
Credit Likely Drove July’s US Retail Sales
Consumer credit rose by USD 25.5bn in July (to USD 5,093.7 bn outstanding), more than twice the expected growth. However, revisions suggest that June’s consumer credit growth was slower than initially reported (USD 8.9bn to 5.2bn). Nonrevolving credit…
Daily Insights
US Small Business Optimism Unexpectedly Declined In August
US small business optimism unexpectedly shed 2.5 points to 91.2 in August, the largest monthly decline since 2022, retracing nearly half of the index’s advance since March. The NFIB Small Business Optimism has oscillated in a tight range since 2022 but…
Daily Insights
UK Wage Growth Decelerates
The BoE embarked on its easing cycle in August, delivering its first 25 bps rate cut. The decision was nowhere near unanimous, with 5 MPCs out of 9 voting in favor of lowering policy rates. Indeed, while headline inflation is sitting right on the central…
Daily Insights
Private Equity & Sports
Private Equity & Sports Private…
Daily Insights
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Heed Warnings From Market Undercurrents

The undercurrents of global financial markets signal deteriorating global growth conditions. There is little cash on the sidelines in the US, the Euro Area, and Japan. If the budding bear market resembles the 2000-2003 one, EM stock prices are unlikely to outperform global equities in the initial leg but could outperform in the latter stage of the global selloff.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
The ECB Will Cut Rates This Week; The Next One Is More Likely To Come In December Than October
Eurozone GDP’s final estimate indicates that growth was slower than expected in Q2. Output grew 0.2% q/q in Q2, compared to 0.3% previously reported. A significant downward revision to capex (2.2% contraction against 1.8% previously estimated) drove the…
Daily Insights
Swedish Spreads Augur Poorly For Eurozone Stocks And Currency
The Swedish economy’s cyclicality and sensitivity to global trade make it a reliable bellwether for global growth. Sweden is facing significant domestic weakness. Employment growth declined by 0.14% y/y in July and households’ debt burden stands at 155% of…
Daily Insights
Bifurcated Demand For Semiconductors
Global semiconductor stocks have returned 50% YTD in USD terms, and a whopping 200% since their September 2022 lows. However, they may have peaked back in July. Our Emerging Market strategists highlight a significant bifurcation between the revenues of…
Daily Insights
European Asset Returns Post Carry Trade Unwinding
BCA Research’s European Investment strategists looked at previous episodes of carry-trade blowups and assessed the performance of the Eurozone’s key sectors, national markets, and currencies three and six months thereafter. Under both investment horizons,…
Daily Insights

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