Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Developed Countries

ISM Manufacturing PMI Extends Contraction Streak
The ISM manufacturing PMI improved in August, from 46.8 to 47.2, but remained below expectations of 47.5 and extended a five-month contraction streak. Production declined at a faster pace (45.9 to 44.8) and both new orders and new export orders contracted…
Daily Insights
Fade Any 2Y/10Y Un-Inversion
The 2Y/10Y segment of the yield curve is flirting with un-inversion. Aggressive rate cut expectations have largely driven its steepening, with the 2-year Treasury yields falling nearly 100 bps over the past couple of months. Our colleagues at the Bank…
Daily Insights
US GDI Lags GDP In This Cycle
Significantly stronger-than-expected consumer spending growth led to an upward revision to US GDP growth in Q2. That said, gross domestic income (GDI) has been lagging behind GDP. It increased 1.3% q/q in Q2, at the same rate as in Q1, and well below Q2’s…
Daily Insights
Euro Area Balance Sheet Health: Time to Call 911
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, an increase in borrowing costs will further weaken vulnerable corporate balance sheets. As suggested by their Corporate Health Monitors (CHMs), the health of High-Yield corporate balance sheets…
Daily Insights
F_IMAGE_20240830_191102.PNG
Chartbook

Our annual end-of-summer chartbook report traces the labor market deterioration that led us to downgrade equities at the beginning of August. It also highlights the soft-landing expectations that the credit and equity markets are discounting. We like the risk-reward profile of our newly defensive stance.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
f_image_20240830_183946.PNG
Will Democrats Win Another Full Sweep? Not Likely

Democrats will not win a full sweep and implement drastic new tax hikes. However, our quant model still favors them to win the White House and just upgraded their odds. While we expect equity volatility around the election, investors do not need to worry about corporate tax hikes.

US Political Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken
f_image_20240830_143022.PNG
Monthly Portfolio Update: Is The Fed Right To Declare Mission Accomplished?

Even after the Fed cuts rates, policy will remain restrictive for some time. Moreover, in history, stocks have tended to fall around the first rate cut. We remain cautious on the outlook for the economy and risk assets.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
f_image_20240830_175640.PNG
MacroQuant Model Update: Pre-Recessionary Stage

MacroQuant continues to recommend underweighting equities and overweighting bonds. This is consistent with the Global Investment Strategy Team's decision to downgrade global equities to underweight in late June.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Savings Rate At 16-Year Low Casts Doubt On US Spending’s Sustainability
US nominal personal income growth accelerated from 0.2% m/m to 0.3% in July, faster-than-anticipated, whereas personal spending accelerated from 0.3% to 0.5%, in line with expectations. The savings rate edged lower from 3.1% to a 16-year-low of 2.9%. …
Daily Insights
Eurozone CPI At 3-Year Low Paves Way For September Cut
After surprising to the upside in July on higher energy costs, Eurozone CPI resumed its deceleration in August. Headline and core CPI declined from 2.6% y/y to 2.2% and from 2.9% to 2.8%, respectively. Energy prices contracted 0.3% y/y from July’s 1.2%…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics