Developed Countries

Last week, economists polled by Bloomberg revised their consensus 2024 US GDP forecasts upwards, from 2.3% to 2.5%. Government spending and private investment were both revised 0.3 ppts higher to 3.0% and 3.9%, respectively, while consumption growth forecasts…

The market is currently expecting the Fed to cut rates by 100 bps over the course of 2024 and by another 120 bps throughout the first eight months of 2025. However, our Global Investment strategists expect the extent of 2024 rate cuts to undershoot…

During his Jackson Hole speech, Chair Powell dispelled any remaining doubts about a September rate cut. Still, easing monetary policy is unlikely to result in a soft landing. First, recessions have historically started shortly after the Fed began cutting…

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence measure surprised to the upside in August, rising from 100.3 to 103.3, above expectations of 100.7. Consumers’ assessment of present economic conditions climbed 0.8 points to 134.4, while their expectations about the…

According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Sweden, which acts as a bellwether for the global economy, will offer early insight into whether our base-case late 2024/early 2025 recession scenario will come to fruition. This Nordic country…

Preliminary estimates suggest that US durable goods orders growth rebounded sharply from a 6.9% m/m contraction to 9.9% growth in July, upending expectations of a more muted 5.0% monthly increase. However, a 34.8% m/m rise in transportation equipment orders…

European regulatory carbon credits (EUAs) are becoming increasingly investable as an asset class. In a Special Report published last September, our Global Investment strategists agreed to the strategic bull case for EUAs, but highlighted a bearish view on…

Sentiment among German companies declined in August from 87.0 to 86.6. Current conditions shed 0.6 points to 86.5 while the expectations component ticked 0.2 points lower. It nevertheless exceeded consensus expectations for a larger decline. Deteriorating…

Market Breadth Remains Poor Despite Equal-weighted S&P 500’s Record High …

According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, in the final months of an election cycle, equities underperform relative to non-election years. This extends further into Q1 of the following year due to uncertainty. Once the election results are…