Developed Countries
Regular readers are familiar with our expectation that the stabilization in global growth this year will be fleeting. The US has been the main source of demand in this cycle. We view the latest string of US employment data as further evidence the US…
Market and economic observers have devoted a lot of attention to the Sahm Rule following July’s employment report, and whether or not it has been triggered. BCA’s analysis has highlighted that the overall direction of the labor market is far more important…
The RBA kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in August, in line with expectations. However, it lifted its trimmed-mean inflation forecast to 3.5% y/y in Q4 2024 and to 2.9% by Q4 2025 (up from 3.4% and 2.8% in its May forecast, respectively). Inflation…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, investors should fade the rebound in European equities and bond yields as the euro is also at risk. Last week’s bounce in global equities is temporary. The pause in the carry trades unwound,…
The unwind of yen carry trades caused violent tremors across the globe. Was this shock a one-off event or the prelude to more troubles?
In this monthly review, we give our take on where bond yields and the dollar are headed. This is within the lens of revisiting our fundamental indicators.
The market backdrop changed a lot between the preparation and the publication of our equity downgrade report. We publish this companion Insight to help investors navigate the new environment.
There has been no shortage of twists since last Friday’s employment situation report. On Monday, the July ISM Services PMI release dissipated some of the risk-off mood that dominated markets. On Thursday, positive signals from weekly unemployment claims…
German Industrial production and factory orders continued their slump in June. The usual powerhouse of the Euro Area economy has been trailing its peers throughout 2024. While both industrial production and factory orders surprised to the upside in June,…
Consumer credit growth disappointed in June. Total credit outstanding rose by USD 8.9 billion, in June, lower than May's USD 13.9 billion, and shy of expectations of USD 10 billion. Revolving credit (which includes credit cards) declined USD 1.7 billion in…