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Economic Growth

A Recession Is Imminent

The US economy is set to enter a recession within the next few months. Stay underweight equities and overweight cash. Look to increase fixed-income duration exposure over the coming months. The euro is likely to strengthen and European stocks should outperform US stocks over the next month or so, but these trends will reverse by the middle of this year.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Retail Real Estate: Alive, Well, And Unnoticed
Our Private Markets & Alternatives strategists assessed retail real estate opportunities.  Retail Real Estate is a contrarian opportunity, with investor sentiment at rock-bottom levels despite shifting consumption patterns. Click-and-collect,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
ECB: Nearing Neutral With A Complex Outlook
The ECB cut 25 bps as expected, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. President Lagarde reiterated the disinflationary process is “well on track” and described the policy stance as “meaningfully less restrictive”, signalling the ECB is nearing…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Germany Will Force The ECB’s Hand, Eventually

The ECB cut rates as expected, but rising yields and a stronger euro are tightening financial conditions just as fiscal policy shifts the macro landscape. With more rate cuts ahead and market positioning stretched, we outline the key risks, investment opportunities, and our updated call on the ECB’s terminal rate. Read our full report for actionable insights.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Recession Risk Is Back

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
What Will Hold Trump Back?
In light of President Trump’s address to Congress and the ebb-and-flow of tariff announcements, our Geopolitical strategists assessed the constraints on the administration’s disruptive agenda. Trump’s ability to implement his agenda is strongest in early…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Fed Beige Book Shows Slowing Growth, And Rising Price Pressures
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows a slowing economy, a moderating labor market, and rising price pressures.  The latest Beige Book is in line with other sentiment indicators showing slower growth and decreased confidence following the post-election…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
China: Caixin PMIs Point To Low Growth As National People’s Congress Begins
China’s February Caixin PMIs showed growth remains tepid. The composite ticked up to 51.5 from 51.1. Services are still showing a very faint expansion at 51.4, with manufacturing ticking up to 50.8. The message from the official NBS PMIs was similar.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
ISM Services Sends A Stagflationary Signal
ISM Services Sends Stagflationary Signal …
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Keep An Eye On This Inflation Chart
Leading US growth indicators have slowed, with economic surprises now in negative territory. However, Monday’s ISM Manufacturing showed that while activity is slowing due to tariffs uncertainty, supply-side price pressures are increasing. Our Price…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity See more Topics Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics