Economic Growth
The ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps for the third time this year, lowering the deposit facility rate from 3.5% to 3.25%. While the ECB is avoiding explicitly committing to a path for policy, President Lagarde’s repeated statement that the disinflationary…
China’s Housing Administration Chief held a press conference yesterday to unveil two property-sector stimulus plans. According to our China strategists, the details were underwhelming and led to a decline in Chinese equities. The major plan doubles credit…
Recent economic data surprises drove equities and bond yields higher, putting our US Investment Strategy team’s bearish views to the test. They recently published a piece assessing their views considering these bullish developments. First, there is more to…
After improving throughout the summer, the October release of the first monthly regional Fed manufacturing survey sent a negative signal about US manufacturing activity. General business conditions from the Empire State Manufacturing survey fell 23 points…
Canadian headline inflation rose 1.6% year-over-year in September, lower than the expected 1.8% and down from 2.0% in August. This was also its slowest pace since February 2021. The decrease was mainly driven by gasoline prices, leaving the core (ex. food and…
Economic expectations for the both Germany and the Eurozone ticked up in October and surprised positively for the first time since they collapsed this summer. The assessment of current conditions however worsened, going from -84.5 to -86.9. The expectations…
The UK August employment report was in line with recent data showing an economy humming at a decent pace. The unemployment rate decreased 0.1pp to 4% after peaking at 4.4% before the summer. The BoE will look kindly to the continued deceleration in wage…
This week, we cover the main questions we fielded during our latest client trip in Europe. Among the many topics broached are Europe’s recession odds, the impact of China’s stimulus, and the outlook for European markets.
Rising stock prices and improving economic data have us re-examining our bearish thesis, but we still see deterioration in leading labor market indicators and expect it will eventually culminate in a recession. We reiterate our defensive investment recommendations.
In this Insight, we assess whether investors should expect fiscal turbulence in the UK, that will drive UK yields higher and the pound lower.