Economic Growth
Regular readers are familiar with our expectation that the stabilization in global growth this year will be fleeting. The US has been the main source of demand in this cycle. We view the latest string of US employment data as further evidence the US…
The unwind of yen carry trades caused violent tremors across the globe. Was this shock a one-off event or the prelude to more troubles?
After briefly breaking a 27-month streak of negative sentiment back in June, the Eurozone Sentix Economic index disappointed in August. The overall index worsened from July’s negative reading to -13.9, below expectations of a milder deterioration. The…
The latest Conference Board measure of consumer confidence suggested that consumers were increasingly downbeat about current economic conditions. Notably, their fading optimism about labor market conditions drove the jobs-plentiful-minus-hard-to-get measure…
The market is pricing in a soft landing, but we see growing signs that the global economy is faltering. Investors should be defensively positioned.
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, a foreign shock is likely to tip the Eurozone economy into a recession because important vulnerabilities have emerged domestically. Policy is restrictive. Real interest rates stand 370bps…
Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?
This report takes a look at bond and FX market technical indicators and calibrates the decision to increase portfolio duration and get long the US dollar.
Equity investors have been skittish about mid-cap banks ever since Silicon Valley Bank failed in March 2023. The S&P MidCap 400 Regional Banks Index remains 4% below its February 2023 high while the S&P 500 Diversified Banks Index, dominated by the…
According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, trade policy under a second Trump presidency represents one of the greatest cyclical risks to investors. A key question for investors is whether tariffs are prioritized early in the administration or…