Economic Growth
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 4.35% at its May meeting, in line with expectations. The statement highlighted that inflation continues to moderate, though at a slower-than-expected pace. Board members also pointed out…
The final estimates of Spain's and France’s services PMIs were revised upwards of expectations in April, increasing from 56.1 to 56.2 and from 50.5 to 51.3 respectively. The services European harmonized PMI also increased from 52.9 to a higher-than-expected…
Investors should prepare for economic data to weaken even as policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk skyrocket ahead of the US election.
The preliminary nonfarm labor productivity estimate increased by an annualized 0.3% in Q1, below both the previous quarter’s 3.5% rate and expectations of 0.5%. Meanwhile unit labor costs increased by 4.7% annualized in Q1, a sharp acceleration from 0.4% in…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, US and Euro Area growth will likely converge in the next 12 months. Fiscal policy differences were the most visible headwind to Eurozone growth last year. The IMF estimates that the…
In its latest report, BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service provides an update on its MacroQuant model. The overall equity score declined in April, finishing the month at the 29th percentile, which is enough to prompt the model to assign US…
Central banks are in a dilemma whether to prioritize supporting growth or bringing inflation back to target. This is unlikely to end well. Investors should be defensively positioned.
Euro area inflation and GDP numbers were released on Tuesday. The preliminary harmonized core consumer price index came in at 0.7% on a month-on-month basis, a decrease from 1.1% in March. The preliminary year-on-year core CPI also decreased, clocking in at…
Investors anticipate a record growth gap between the US and the Eurozone in 2024. Does this skewed expectation create market opportunities?
The advanced estimates for US real GDP suggest that economic growth slowed meaningfully from 3.4% in Q4 2023 to 1.6% in Q1 2024 on an annualized basis, significantly below expectations of 2.5%. That said, the details of the report were less gloomy. While…