Economic Growth
Our US Beige Book monitor – which we use to gauge changes in the language of the Fed’s report – continues to signal lackluster US economic conditions. Historically, the monitor has closely tracked real GDP growth in the US. However, the long standing…
As we highlighted in a recent Insight, dynamics have shifted beneath the surface of the S&P 500. The Materials sector has been rallying sharply since the end of January, gaining 9.9% over this period and taking the top spot among the 11 sectors. This…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, Australia’s macroeconomic environment validates a long AUD position, especially at the crosses. The market expects that the RBA will cut interest rates soon, but that is not likely when we look…
The US retail sales report for February delivered a disappointing signal on Thursday. Although retail sales returned to expansion, the 0.6% m/m increase fell below anticipations of a 0.8% m/m rise. In addition, the prior month was revised down to a -1.1% m/m…
The Eurozone Sentix Economic index improved from -12.9 to -10.5 in March, marking a fifth month of improved sentiment amongst investors and economic agents. Notably, the Expectation subindex rose to a 25-month high of -2.3 from -5.5 in February. The Current…
There is a general consensus among BCA Research strategists that a US recession is highly likely over the next two years. While last month our Global Investment strategists reduced the probability that a recession will materialize in H1 2024 and raised the…
US headline CPI inflation accelerated from 0.3% m/m to 0.4% m/m in February, in line with expectations. A rise in gasoline prices and shelter inflation accounted for 60% of this increase. Meanwhile, the annual rate of change in the headline index unexpectedly…
Chinese stocks are experiencing their longest rally since the country’s exit from Covid restrictions over a year ago. The MSCI Onshore and Investable indices (in USD terms) have gained 15.8% and 9.1% respectively since February 5th, with the former…
Although the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q1 have been trending lower, the latest 2.5% print (which is down from 3.4% a month ago) still suggests that economic conditions are resilient in the US. Yet small business owners are less optimistic. The results…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, a very substantial PSL financing scheme for housing, a large LG and LGFV debt swap, and considerable fiscal transfers to households—or a combination thereof— might lead them to upgrade their…