Economic Growth
Retail sales and consumer sentiment data point to slowing underlying momentum despite headline resilience. Retail sales rose 0.5% m/m in July, below estimates and decelerating from 0.9% in June. The control group beat estimates at 0.5% but also slowed.…
July data confirm China’s weak growth, with no near-term shift toward meaningful stimulus. New home prices fell 0.31% m/m, retail sales slowed to 3.7% y/y from 4.8%, and industrial production eased. Flooding in July disrupted infrastructure spending…
The Indian rupee remains vulnerable to further depreciation amid slowing growth, tight domestic policy, and fragile capital flows. Trade risks and a weakening external balance will likely keep INR underperforming EM Asia peers.
European sentiment has moderated, pointing to near-term downside risk for a technically-stretched Euro. The August Eurozone ZEW Expectations index fell to 25.1 from 36.1, with Germany’s reading missing estimates, dropping sharply to 34.7 from 52.7. The German…
US equities are set for tactical outperformance versus Europe, but dips or underperformance in European assets remain entry points for long-term investors. European stocks have stalled below prior highs, while the S&P 500 has rebounded to record levels…
The RBA delivered a widely expected cut to 3.6%, but resilient data warrant an ACGBs underweight. The 25 bps cut was the third this year and Governor Bullock’s guidance was consistent with a cut every other meeting, keeping ACGB yields roughly…
The July NFIB survey showed a rebound in expectations, but underlying weakness reinforces left-tail risks and supports a moderate risk-off allocation. The headline index rose to 100.3, a five-month high, but remains below December 2024 levels. The…
Japan’s Eco Watchers survey suggests growth has troughed, making JGBs vulnerable in both global slowdown and reacceleration scenarios. The July survey showed current conditions ticking up to 45.2 and expectations improving to 47.3. While both remain…
The July PMIs and inflation data confirm that China faces a persistent low-growth, deflationary backdrop, with weak demand and tariff risk warranting defensive equity positioning. The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, while services ticked up at 52.6.…
In response to trade uncertainty, global growth is cooling but not collapsing, supporting a cautious near-term view on risk assets. Trade disruption earlier this year raised fears of a global recession, but the data so far point to deceleration, not…