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Economic Growth

Eurozone Sentix: A Durable Improvement?
The Sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone continues to send a marginally positive signal. Its 1.8-point increase to -16.8 in December brings it to its highest level since May, albeit below expectations of a slightly more meaningful improvement to -15.6.…
Daily Insights
S&P 500 Sectors Are Churning Beneath The Surface
The S&P 500 closed at a fresh year-to-date high on Friday, breaking slightly above its late-July top. The brisk rally since late-October erased all the losses of the prior three months. However, the sector performance has shifted over the course of the…
Daily Insights
The Eurozone's Three Credit Phases In 2024
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European corporate spreads will widen over the coming six months before an attractive buying opportunity emerges in the second half of 2024. 2024 will likely be characterized by three credit…
Daily Insights
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2024 Key Views: Suspended Animation
Special Report

We enter 2024 as we were across the last four months of 2023, tactically equal weight across the board until the S&P 500 rally is complete and we gain a better entry point for underweighting equities and overweighting fixed income.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
The Recession That Never Came?
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, recession is still on track to begin in the first half of 2024. Is it the recession that never came? Certainly, the consensus thinks so. Soft landing is now the clear mainstream view. Investment…
Daily Insights
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Tight Policy Will Eventually Trigger Recession

Inflation won’t fall fast enough for the Fed to cut rates preemptively before recession arrives. The risk/rewards balance is unfavorable for risk assets. Stay overweight bonds versus equities.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Italy And Spain Are Outperforming In 2023
Euro Area stocks have had a strong 2023, rising by 18.8% year-to-date, only slightly behind the 19.1% gain captured by US equities, and outperforming the ACWI’s 14.3% increase. In particular, the Italian index’s 35.3% year-to-date surge stands out among…
Daily Insights
What Does A Deep Recession Do To Oil Prices?
BCA’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service does not expect a global recession next year.  In practical terms, this means they are more bullish on their oil-price outlook for 2024 than the consensus and also differ with the BCA House view.  In…
Daily Insights
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Korea: On The Front Lines Of The Global Cycle

The recent increase in Korean exports will likely prove to be a mid-cycle rebound within a cyclical downtrend. Korea’s households and enterprises are among the most indebted globally, and their debt service ratio is among the highest in the world. Korea’s 10-year bond yields have peaked. We discuss opportunities in Korean stocks as well as in fixed income and currency markets.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Ziyuan Huang, Arthur Budaghyan
The Easy Money Era Is Likely Over
According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, events that have occurred since the onset of the pandemic have highlighted that the easy money era that prevailed from 2009-2021 is very likely over. The Fed will cut interest rates meaningfully…
Daily Insights

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics