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Economy

The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% and announced QT will end December 1, signaling modest easing but no December cut commitment. The decision matched expectations, with dovish (Gov. Miran, for a 50 bps cut) and hawkish (Pres. Schmid, for no cut)…

This month’s China High-Frequency Indicator (HFI) Chartbook decodes the conflicting messages in recent economic data, highlights key signals from our HFI, and explains what they mean for China’s economy and markets.

The October Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey beat estimates but fell slightly, showing stable current conditions and softer expectations. The headline declined to 94.6 from an upwardly revised 95.6. Consumers’ assessment of their present situation…
Germany’s October Ifo survey was mixed, with better expectations but weaker current conditions, underscoring a fragile European outlook. The headline Business Climate index rose above estimates to 88.4 from 87.7. The improvement came from higher expectations,…

US inflation data continue to show no signs of price pressures beyond a near-term tariff effect.

The Fed is poised to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut this month, but a follow-up rate cut in December will depend on how the divergence between strong consumer spending and weak employment growth is resolved.

Canada’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey paints a weak macro picture with limited price pressures, supporting an overweight on CGBs and CAD 5s10s steepeners. The BOS Indicator ticked up marginally to -2.3 from -2.4, as low capacity utilization and business…

The most significant divide in the stock market and the economy is the gap between companies positioned to benefit from the AI boom and companies without a link to it. The former are surging while many of the latter are struggling.

We expect the divergence between resilient growth and weakening employment to be resolved by lower growth estimates, supporting long duration and steepeners. Economic activity and employment usually move together in a circular relationship: spending drives…
Recent Canadian data confirm slowing growth, reinforcing support for government bonds and steepeners. The October CFIB Business Barometer fell to 46.3 from 50.2, indicating contraction and underscoring the risk posed by small business weakness given their…