Economy
MacroQuant continues to recommend underweighting equities and overweighting bonds. This is consistent with the Global Investment Strategy Team's decision to downgrade global equities to underweight in late June.
US nominal personal income growth accelerated from 0.2% m/m to 0.3% in July, faster-than-anticipated, whereas personal spending accelerated from 0.3% to 0.5%, in line with expectations. The savings rate edged lower from 3.1% to a 16-year-low of 2.9%. …
After surprising to the upside in July on higher energy costs, Eurozone CPI resumed its deceleration in August. Headline and core CPI declined from 2.6% y/y to 2.2% and from 2.9% to 2.8%, respectively. Energy prices contracted 0.3% y/y from July’s 1.2%…
Tokyo’s CPI is a timely leading indicator of nationwide price pressures. In August, the headline, core (ex-food) and the “core core” (ex-food and energy) measures all accelerated by larger-than-expected margins, reaching 2.6%, 2.4% and 1.6% y/y, respectively.…
Chinese onshore and offshore bank stocks have outperformed their respective broad markets by 26% and 24% since October. Despite deteriorating return on assets, return on equity and net interest margins, investors have sought out their high dividend yields and…
According to our Bank Credit Analyst service, an inflection point in the relative performance of US stocks is not likely to occur over the coming 6-12 months. A recession favors US equities in common currency terms barring substantially less global ex-US…
This Insight looks at potential dollar moves in the next six-to-twelve months.
US GDP was unexpectedly revised higher to 3.0% q/q annualized in Q2, from 2.8% previously estimated. A significant upward revision to consumer spending (2.9% from 2.3% against expectations of a downward revision) largely offset weaker growth in other…
China has notably diversified its export markets over the past two decades, reducing its dependence on the US and other DM economies and strengthening trade ties with EM nations. Since 2000, shipments to the US have halved (from 30% to 16% of total…