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Economy

Can The BoE Afford To Cut Rates In August?
In a widely expected move, the Bank of England (BoE) kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% in June. Although MPC members voted seven-to-two in favor of not cutting rates, a tweak in communication noting that the decision was “finely balanced”, hinted at the…
Daily Insights
Agency MBS: Best Bang For Your Buck?
In its latest Special Report, BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service considers the relative merits of four different fixed income investments in the current economic environment: 2-year Treasuries, 10-year Treasuries, Baa-rated corporate bonds and current…
Daily Insights
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Should A Wise Investor Choose A Treasury, Corporate Bond Or MBS?
Special Report

We consider the relative merits of four different fixed income investments in the current economic environment: 2-year Treasuries, 10-year Treasuries, Baa-rated corporate bonds and current coupon Agency MBS.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
UK Inflation Is Still Sticky
On the surface, UK inflation appears to be on the right track. The May CPI release came in broadly within expectations. Headline inflation eased from 2.3%y/y to 2.0%y/y – directly on the BoE’s target for the first time since July 2021. Core CPI (excluding…
Daily Insights
Is The US Manufacturing Sector Showing Signs Of Life?
The heart of the US manufacturing sector is still pulsing. Industrial production surpassed expectations in May, growing by 0.9% m/m after having stagnated in April. Notably, the pro-cyclical manufacturing production index rebounded from April’s surprise…
Daily Insights
Growth Unlikely To Overshoot ECB Forecast
The ECB delivered its first rate cut in June, moderating the degree of restriction rather than pivoting outright to easy monetary policy settings. Indeed, the rate cut was accompanied by an upward revision of inflation and growth forecasts. Since then,…
Daily Insights
Bad Breadth Should Shoo Investors Away
Nvidia is now the largest company in the world. Its market capitalization has not only surpassed Microsoft’s, it also tops the entire stock market capitalizations of the UK and France. While Nvidia founders and owners are likely to welcome this news, it acts…
Daily Insights
Will China Retaliate Against EU Tariffs?
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Beijing will engage in ongoing negotiations with the EU regarding its import tax decision rather than impose meaningful retaliatory measures. The EU and China appear to be negotiating ahead of…
Daily Insights
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The US Is Exceptional, But The World Is Not Unipolar
Special Report

US assets and the US dollar should remain resilient relative to global peers over the next 12 months as policy uncertainty, election risk, and geopolitical risk reach a climax. After that, investors should reassess their regional allocation.

US Political Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy, US Equity Strategy by Matt Gertken
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Chinese EVs And EU Import Levies

The EU's import tariff increases on Chinese EVs are expected to have a minimal impact on China's overall exports. We anticipate that most Western-brand EV shipments from China will be less affected by the EU import tax hike. Beijing will likely pursue continued negotiations with the EU rather than resort to harsh retaliatory measures.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima

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