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Economy

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Pump Up Your Equity Portfolio With A Barbell Strategy

The US economy remains on a path towards a recession, most likely starting in late 2024 or early 2025. For now, investors should maintain a benchmark allocation to equities, but employ a barbell strategy of overweighting defensives and materials.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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Could Democrats Win The House Of Representatives?

Republicans are favored in the House and Senate even if they do not win the White House. A Democratic sweep is a 20% risk. The policy implication would be inflationary, but not so much as under a Republican sweep. Election uncertainty should increasingly weigh on cyclical and high-beta assets in the second half of 2024.

US Political Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken
ECB Cuts Rates But Hikes Inflation Forecast
After holding rates steady over the past nine months, the ECB delivered on its widely expected rate cut on Thursday. The Governing Council lowered all three key ECB interest rates by 25 bps, bringing the refinancing, marginal lending facility and deposit…
Daily Insights
Global LEI: Growth Lacks A Convincing Inflection Point
BCA’s Global Leading Economic Indicator has had a good track record of predicting year-on-year changes in the IMF global real GDP growth series. This GDP-weighted average of the standardized leading indicators of 23 DM and EM economies bottomed in early 2023,…
Daily Insights
The Case For S&P 500 Healthcare
The Case For S&P 500 Healthcare …
Daily Insights
ISM Services PMI’s Surge Hides Softer Dynamics
The ISM Services PMI largely surpassed expectations in May. The headline index grew by 4.4 ppt to 53.8, returning to expansion following April’s one-month contraction. Double-digit jumps in new export orders (13.9 ppt) and business activity (+10.3 ppts) drove…
Daily Insights
The BoC Dove Takes Flight
The Bank of Canada reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points from 5% to 4.75% on Wednesday, in line with the market consensus. Headline inflation and the BoC’s preferred measures of core inflation are within the BoC’s target range of 1-3%, and shorter-term…
Daily Insights
Fade The Signal From Silver-To-Gold
The silver-to-gold ratio has surged close to 10% this year on the back of silver prices catching up to gold. Silver has returned 22% on a YTD basis, against 12% for gold, 13% for industrial metals and 5% for the broad commodity complex, making the white metal…
Daily Insights
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Who Will Find Gold In The AI Gold Rush, And When?

The long-term winners from the generative-AI gold rush are unlikely to be the ‘picks and shovels’ stock Nvidia or the overvalued US superstars of Web 2.0. We discuss the structural investment implications. Plus: time to go tactically overweight global consumer discretionary (RXI).

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
The Outlook For Capex Runs Through Consumers
Consumption accounts for two-thirds of the US economy, and our recession view relies heavily on the deteriorating outlook for US consumers. That said, dissecting US GDP into its components reveals that consumption tends to merely stabilize during…
Daily Insights

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AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics