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Economy

Sticky Wages Complicate the BoE's Task
The UK unemployment rate surprised to the upside in the 3-month period ending in April, ticking up to 4.4% against expectations it would remain stable at March’s originally reported 4.3%. Concurrently, wage growth remains elevated. The 3-month measure of…
Daily Insights
Investor Sentiment Turns Positive In The Eurozone
The Eurozone Sentix Economic index improved from -3.6 to 0.3 in June, easily surpassing expectations of a more muted improvement to -1.7. Notably, the Expectation and Current Situation subindices rose to 28-month and 13-month highs of 10 and -9, respectively.…
Daily Insights
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EU Election: Will Policy Be Affected?

Europe did not witness a major policy reversal. Inflationary pressures are coming down, enabling the ECB to cut rates and European states to maintain soft budgets. Geopolitical challenges ensure that European parties continue to cooperate on national defense, economic security, and energy security.

Geopolitical Strategy, European Investment Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jeremie Peloso
US Consumer Credit Growth Disappoints In April
Total consumer credit rose by USD 6.4 billion in April (to USD 5,053 billion outstanding), from a USD 1.1 billion decrease in March (a large downward revision to the USD 6.3 billion rise initially reported) and significantly shy of expectations for a USD 10…
Daily Insights
Excess Savings Won’t Save China's Economy
The redeployment of pandemic-era excess savings has been a significant driver of US consumption growth and helped the economy avoid a recession last year. Although pandemic-era fiscal support was less generous in China, households nevertheless accumulated CNY…
Daily Insights
Mixed Messages From Swedish Indicators
Sweden is a small export-oriented economy and its high sensitivity to global trade makes it a good bellwether of global growth developments. The headwinds from high borrowing costs are relatively more pronounced in Sweden where a large share of households…
Daily Insights
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The One About Energy And Aerospace & Defense

We close our overweights to Energy and Aerospace & Defense. The macroeconomic backdrop is deteriorating for Energy. As for A&D, the good news is already priced in.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
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Are We There Yet?

Although the comprehensive economic surprise indexes continued weakening in May, the metrics in our equity downgrade checklist haven’t softened enough to check more boxes now. While we continue to expect the US economy will enter a recession before year end, it is not yet certain and we remain tactically neutral.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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The First ECB Cut Of Many

The ECB is now firmly in easing mode, even if it refuses to pre-commit to a specific rate path. What does this data dependency mean for the euro and European yields?

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Payrolls Surged In May, Wages Accelerated
US nonfarm payrolls grew by 272 thousand in May, accelerating from 165 thousand in April, and swamping expectations of 180 thousand. Average hourly earnings increased by 4.1% y/y from an upwardly revised 4.0%. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly…
Daily Insights

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