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Economy

Most CEOs No Longer Expect A Recession In The Coming Year
The Conference Board measure of CEO Confidence improved slightly in Q2, from 53 to 54. A reading above 50 indicates that optimistic perceptions of business conditions outweigh pessimistic assessments. The Q2 survey result marks a second consecutive quarter of…
Daily Insights
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New Zealand: The Rising Case For A Rate Cut

In this Insight, we revisit our "higher for longer" theme for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, in light of the latest central bank meeting. In conclusion, we are inching towards a more dovish RBNZ ahead. Ergo, we recommend some fixed income and currency trades.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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China: A Turning Point In The Housing Market?

The RMB 500 billion program is small, as it is equivalent to only 4% of property developers' total funding from the past 12 months. This will preclude a recovery in property construction this year. Corporate profits will determine the path of China’s share prices on a cyclical time horizon. Deflation in China will persist for now, which will depress corporate profits even if volumes grow modestly.

Emerging Markets Strategy, China Investment Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Hot UK CPI Pushes Back On Summer Rate Cut
The UK CPI release surprised markets to the upside across the board on Wednesday. Headline CPI increased 2.3% year-on-year, above expectations of 2.1%. Core surprised to the upside as well, moderating from 4.2% to 3.9%y/y, less than the moderation embedded in…
Daily Insights
Wealth Effects Will Not Boost Consumption Meaningfully
We do not subscribe to the Goldilocks scenario in which price pressures continue to ease while economic growth remains robust. We expect that softening labor demand will eventually hinder consumption as wage and payrolls growth slows, at the same time that…
Daily Insights
Do Not Heed The Signal From Industrial Metals
Industrial metals have outperformed the broad commodity complex this year and raced above the broad commodity complex even more meaningfully since the beginning of April. Our Commodity and Energy strategists have highlighted that the overrepresentation of…
Daily Insights
Earnings Guidance Leaves Room For Downward Surprises
The Q1 2024 earnings season is drawing to a close with 93% of S&P 500 companies having reported results as we go to press. Three-quarters (two-thirds) of companies have topped earnings (sales) expectations in Q1, according to Factset. Next quarter’s…
Daily Insights
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An Unprecedented Schism In The World Economy

The economic schism in the world economy, between the non-US developed economy in recession and the US in strong growth, is unprecedented during our lifetimes. Now the schism will continue in reverse, as the non-US developed economy rebounds while the US fades. There are important implications for rates, the dollar, and sector and regional equity allocation which we discuss. Plus: base metals are a tactical short.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Has The Savings Rate Structurally Shifted Lower?
Our US Investment strategists have used the savings rate as a proxy for households’ willingness to spend. Its persistent decline suggests that consumers have been spending their pandemic-era excess savings and our colleagues would consider a normalization…
Daily Insights
Rise In Serious Delinquency Rates: A Canary In A Coalmine?
The New York Fed Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit indicates that US household debt rose 1.1% q/q in Q1 to $17.7 trillion. Higher mortgage, home equity loan and auto loan balances drove the bulk of the Q1 increase, while credit card balances…
Daily Insights

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