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Economy

Will DM Ex-US And US Growth Recouple?
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the non-US developed economy is “demand-constrained” whereas the US economy is “supply-constrained”. This schism will continue but in reverse. The team has highlighted that following the surge in…
Daily Insights
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China's Policy Moves So Far In 2024
Special Report

China is trying to export its way out of its economic slowdown while the US has already formed a hawkish consensus on foreign policy and trade. Investors should take cover as global financial markets are underrating the new phase of the trade war, which will escalate from here.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
DM Manufacturing Activity Improves In May
Preliminary estimates suggest that manufacturing activity generally improved across DM economies in May. Manufacturing PMIs for the US, the Eurozone, Japan and the UK all improved from their April levels. Notably, manufacturing activity started growing…
Daily Insights
Hawkish Concerns From FOMC Minutes Are Likely Overblown
Minutes from the April 30 - May 1 FOMC meeting struck a hawkish tone on the latest discussions among Fed officials. Notably, the reference to “Various participants mention[ing] a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a…
Daily Insights
Most CEOs No Longer Expect A Recession In The Coming Year
The Conference Board measure of CEO Confidence improved slightly in Q2, from 53 to 54. A reading above 50 indicates that optimistic perceptions of business conditions outweigh pessimistic assessments. The Q2 survey result marks a second consecutive quarter of…
Daily Insights
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New Zealand: The Rising Case For A Rate Cut

In this Insight, we revisit our "higher for longer" theme for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, in light of the latest central bank meeting. In conclusion, we are inching towards a more dovish RBNZ ahead. Ergo, we recommend some fixed income and currency trades.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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China: A Turning Point In The Housing Market?

The RMB 500 billion program is small, as it is equivalent to only 4% of property developers' total funding from the past 12 months. This will preclude a recovery in property construction this year. Corporate profits will determine the path of China’s share prices on a cyclical time horizon. Deflation in China will persist for now, which will depress corporate profits even if volumes grow modestly.

Emerging Markets Strategy, China Investment Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Hot UK CPI Pushes Back On Summer Rate Cut
The UK CPI release surprised markets to the upside across the board on Wednesday. Headline CPI increased 2.3% year-on-year, above expectations of 2.1%. Core surprised to the upside as well, moderating from 4.2% to 3.9%y/y, less than the moderation embedded in…
Daily Insights
Wealth Effects Will Not Boost Consumption Meaningfully
We do not subscribe to the Goldilocks scenario in which price pressures continue to ease while economic growth remains robust. We expect that softening labor demand will eventually hinder consumption as wage and payrolls growth slows, at the same time that…
Daily Insights
Do Not Heed The Signal From Industrial Metals
Industrial metals have outperformed the broad commodity complex this year and raced above the broad commodity complex even more meaningfully since the beginning of April. Our Commodity and Energy strategists have highlighted that the overrepresentation of…
Daily Insights

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