Economy
Nvidia has amassed staggering sales from AI. Last year its data center revenues exploded, going from just over $4 billion in 2023 Q1, to over $18 billion in 2023 Q4. That said, its competitors have not done as well. In the same time frame that Nvidia added…
BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service provides its take on US Q1-24 earnings expectations. Room for surprise? Positive earnings surprises have been a fixture of nearly every earnings season since the darkest days of the pandemic. This quarter will…
UK inflation came in hotter than expected in March. Headline CPI inflation was unchanged at 0.6% m/m – above expectations of a slowdown to 0.4% m/m. Moreover, while the headline and core measures both decelerated on an annual basis, they exceeded consensus…
Developments in US multi-family housing are particularly relevant for the inflation outlook since they inform the future direction of shelter inflation – an important component of CPI inflation. Indeed, the Zillow multi-family rent index leads moves in the…
The Asian currency index posted the largest negative post-GFC abnormal returns (z-score) among the major financial markets we tracked in March. Indeed, Asian currencies have been on a general downtrend since early 2023, and more recently fell 3.2% in absolute…
In this note, we preview the Q1-2024 earnings season, give our take on expectations and share what we will be watching.
Unlike most advanced economies that are flirting with recession due to weak demand, the ‘inverted’ US economy is motoring along due to strong supply, from a combination of surging labour participation and surging immigration. We go through the implications for stocks, bonds, interest rates, and the dollar. Plus: IXJ, PEP, and MCD are good tactical outperformance candidates.
Chinese economic data releases painted a mixed picture of domestic conditions on Tuesday. Chinese real GDP growth accelerated from 5.2% y/y to 5.3% y/y in Q1 2024, beating expectations of 4.8% and suggesting that economic momentum improved at the start of…
UK stocks posted one of the largest positive abnormal returns (z-score) among the major financial markets we tracked in March. The MSCI UK index has gained 2% relative to Eurozone stocks since late February. However, the relative performance of UK equities…
Optimism about the future continues to boost investor confidence in the Euro Area. The ZEW Expectations series for the Eurozone (+10.4 to 43.9) and Germany (+11.2 to 42.9) surged and are now both at their highest in 26 months. Although investors’…