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Economy

Stay Tuned For BoC Rate Cuts
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 5% on Wednesday, in line with expectations. In his opening remarks following the announcement, Governor Tiff Macklem was cautiously dovish:  “We don't want to leave monetary policy this restrictive longer…
Daily Insights
Are Materials Stocks A Buy?
Global material stocks have underperformed over the past 12 months, returning only 11.3% vs 21.4% for the overall market. But could they be a buy now? There are several arguments to argue that they will: The ISM has begun to stabilize and seems to be…
Daily Insights
Lingering Inflation Is Bullish For Energy Stocks
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, rising inflation benefits Utilities, Energy, and Materials, and is a headwind for the Consumer Discretionary sector. After a protracted bout of underperformance, the Energy sector has rebounded …
Daily Insights
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Hot CPI, But Maybe Also A Buying Opportunity In Bonds

Our reaction to this morning’s CPI report and bond market moves.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Gold And Bitcoin Joined At The Hip

Gold and bitcoin are conceptually joined at the hip because the value of both comes from their ‘non-confiscatability’ by inflation, by bank failure, and in the case of bitcoin, by state expropriation. The sharp recent rallies in both gold and bitcoin reflect that the market has suddenly upped the value of non-confiscatability, and a plausible explanation is that recent US inflation data show that the journey to sustained 2 percent inflation has stalled, raising the risk that the Fed might balk at finishing the journey. Plus: JPM, CL, and USD/CHF are tactical reversal candidates.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
NFIB Confidence Deteriorates, Wages Expected Higher
The NFIB’s small business optimism index decreased by 0.9 points to 88.5 in March, missing expectations of 89.9, and reaching its lowest level since 2012. A few things stood out from the report: Labor market dynamics continue to slow. The net percent…
Daily Insights
Southern and Northern Europe: Role Reversal
Italy and Spain have a poor reputation when it comes to their economies. The European debt crisis affected them more than other Euro Area countries. Their housing markets collapsed and debt cost soared. France and Germany, while also affected, were the bright…
Daily Insights
Increased Share of S&P 500 Companies Issuing Negative Q1 Guidance
Increased Share of S&P 500 Companies Issuing Negative Q1 Guidance …
Daily Insights
UAE Equities: Fading Real Estate Tailwind
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, peaking property prices will remove the sole tailwind behind the Emirati Stock Market. Over the past couple of years, the Emirati stock market has been running on a single engine: surging…
Daily Insights
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Recap Of Investment Themes

Fears of a hard landing are abating as growth has been surprising to the upside. New worries are emerging, such as the trajectory of disinflation, and the pace and timing of rate cuts. In this environment, it is important to build a resilient all-weather portfolio, which protects against a correction, rising rates, or stubborn inflation but also has exposure to the AI theme.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel

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