Economy
Subdued credit growth and weak global trade will remain headwinds for Emirati stocks. Surging property prices, which have led to a boom in real estate stocks, will also peak soon. Stay neutral on this bourse. Sovereign credit investors, however, should stay overweight UAE in EM credit portfolios.
German industrial production growth accelerated from an upwardly revised 1.3% m/m to 2.1% m/m in February, registering the fastest pace in 13 months and largely beating expectations of a slowdown. A 7.9% m/m increase in the construction sector was the top…
The recent rise in market-based inflation expectations has caught the attention of market participants. Some investors have begun to worry that the Federal Reserve might be losing control of its inflation mandate by cutting rates sooner than it should. But…
Commodities are making headlines with the prices of crude oil, copper, and gold all making sizeable gains since mid-February. Multiple forces have been cited as drivers of the rally across these commodities. Increased geopolitical risks amid concern of a…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, until labor market cracks emerge, the path of least resistance for bond yields is probably higher, but the potential near-term upside in yields is limited. The team is monitoring three indicators that…
Europe credit flows are stabilizing, hence a major drag on the region’s growth will dissipate. What does this development imply for European equities?
The 303-thousand increase in nonfarm payrolls in March came in well above consensus expectations of a moderation from 270 thousand to 214 thousand. Healthcare, the public sector and construction were the top contributors to employment growth. Moreover, the…
The past week brought a slew of positive US economic data, all suggesting that conditions remain robust and a recession is not imminent. The ISM Manufacturing PMI crossed into expansion for the first time since September 2022, the number of job openings…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service maintains a neutral view on the dollar for the next three months. The team continues to believe that the dollar is due for a long-term bear market, but momentum is in favor of the DXY in the near term. …
Our reaction to this morning’s employment report and bond market moves.