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Economy

Southern and Northern Europe: Role Reversal
Italy and Spain have a poor reputation when it comes to their economies. The European debt crisis affected them more than other Euro Area countries. Their housing markets collapsed and debt cost soared. France and Germany, while also affected, were the bright…
Daily Insights
Increased Share of S&P 500 Companies Issuing Negative Q1 Guidance
Some of the biggest US banks will kick off the reporting season in earnest this Friday, leading increased market focus on Q1 2024 earnings. According to Factset, analysts expect S&P 500 year-over-year earnings growth to expand for the third straight…
Daily Insights
UAE Equities: Fading Real Estate Tailwind
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, peaking property prices will remove the sole tailwind behind the Emirati Stock Market. Over the past couple of years, the Emirati stock market has been running on a single engine: surging…
Daily Insights
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Recap Of Investment Themes

Fears of a hard landing are abating as growth has been surprising to the upside. New worries are emerging, such as the trajectory of disinflation, and the pace and timing of rate cuts. In this environment, it is important to build a resilient all-weather portfolio, which protects against a correction, rising rates, or stubborn inflation but also has exposure to the AI theme.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
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UAE Stocks: The Tailwinds And Headwinds

Subdued credit growth and weak global trade will remain headwinds for Emirati stocks. Surging property prices, which have led to a boom in real estate stocks, will also peak soon. Stay neutral on this bourse. Sovereign credit investors, however, should stay overweight UAE in EM credit portfolios.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
German Industrial Production Growth Reaches 13-Month High
German industrial production growth accelerated from an upwardly revised 1.3% m/m to 2.1% m/m in February, registering the fastest pace in 13 months and largely beating expectations of a slowdown. A 7.9% m/m increase in the construction sector was the top…
Daily Insights
The Message From US Inflation Expectations
The recent rise in market-based inflation expectations has caught the attention of market participants. Some investors have begun to worry that the Federal Reserve might be losing control of its inflation mandate by cutting rates sooner than it should. But…
Daily Insights
The Signal From The Rising Silver-To-Gold Ratio
Commodities are making headlines with the prices of crude oil, copper, and gold all making sizeable gains since mid-February. Multiple forces have been cited as drivers of the rally across these commodities. Increased geopolitical risks amid concern of a…
Daily Insights
No Recession Signal From The Labor Market
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, until labor market cracks emerge, the path of least resistance for bond yields is probably higher, but the potential near-term upside in yields is limited. The team is monitoring three indicators that…
Daily Insights
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Listening To Europe’s Credit Impulse

Europe credit flows are stabilizing, hence a major drag on the region’s growth will dissipate. What does this development imply for European equities?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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