Economy

The equity rally extended into March as hard landing outcome was priced out. It has broadened, as money flowed into less over-loved pockets of the market. Our models signal that margins are about to stabilize, and earnings growth will accelerate as the year progresses. However, companies are raising prices again and the no-landing outcome and fewer than three rate cuts this year are increasingly likely.

We are not yet ready to downgrade equities on a tactical basis but continue to expect we will eventually do so. We present a checklist of indicators that we are watching to determine when to de-risk.

Italy is no longer Europe’s problem child. Investors will be better off reassessing their views of Italian assets, which represent a buying opportunity on a structural time horizon.

The global economy is wobbling precariously between slowing growth and reaccelerating inflation. This is unlikely to end well. Stay cautious, and hedge against both recession and inflation.

In this Insight, we discuss our rationale for a short sterling position.