Economy
The UK CPI report showed inflation eased by more than anticipated in February. Headline CPI inflation dropped from 4.0% y/y to 3.4% y/y – below consensus estimates of 3.5% y/y and the weakest increase since September 2021. Similarly, the slowdown in core…
There were no meaningful adjustments to the Fed’s communication on Wednesday. The post meeting statement was essentially unchanged with Chair Jay Powell noting that the risks to achieving the Fed’s goals are coming into better balance. Powell did…
The 10.4% contraction in Taiwanese export orders for February delivered a negative surprise to expectations that the pace of expansion would slow from 1.9% y/y to 1.2% y/y. However, investors should not read too deeply into this weaker-than-anticipated…
Citigroup’s economic surprise index for the Euro Area has been on a steady ascent since mid-2023. Its continued increase after breaking into positive territory at the start of February indicates that the region’s economic data are generating positive…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the adjustment in China’s real estate sector is not over. Odds are that the property market will contract for the fourth year in a row. The property market indicators continue to paint a grim…
Our takeaways from this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.
The Bank of Japan delivered a historic policy adjustment this week, ending both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control. In this Insight, BCA’s global fixed income and currency strategists discuss the immediate implications of the move for Japanese bond yields and the yen, and the potential for additional tightening actions.
Deflation remains prevalent in the Chinese economy. The longer authorities delay a big bang-type stimulus, the more entrenched deflation will become. Hence, a cyclical upswing in Chinese stocks is unlikely, although there might be short-term rebounds.
The Bank of Japan pulled its policy rate out of negative territory with a 10-basis point rate hike on Tuesday that brings the BoJ’s overnight interest rate to a range of 0% to 0.1%, ending over a decade of ultra-accommodate monetary policy. The central bank…
Various indicators of Eurozone wage growth have cooled off in recent months. Notably, the labor costs index eased sharply from a downwardly revised 5.2% y/y to 3.4% y/y in 2023Q4 – the slowest pace of increase since Q3 2022. Alternative measures such as…