Economy
Various indicators of Eurozone wage growth have cooled off in recent months. Notably, the labor costs index eased sharply from a downwardly revised 5.2% y/y to 3.4% y/y in 2023Q4 – the slowest pace of increase since Q3 2022. Alternative measures such as…
The Aussie dollar was among the worst performing G10 currencies on Tuesday on the back of a shift in tone in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s post-meeting statement. Specifically, the RBA replaced the hawkish bias that “a further increase in interest rates…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should stay cautious with respect to all Turkish assets. Over the past year, the Turkish Central Bank raised the policy rate significantly, from 8.5% to 45%. Banks’ lending rate has…
GAI technology has made tremendous gains over the past year. It has advanced from being a mere “curiosity” to becoming an everyday helper. While the promise of GAI is enormous, its effects are still limited: Companies are still struggling with monetization while productivity improvement is still at least a year away. In terms of evolution, the focus is shifting away from “picks and shovels” infrastructure companies toward model and application developers.
Turkey’s macro policy stance can hardly be called orthodox. And yet, corporate profit margins will contract meaningfully this year. The lira can also fall massively even if inflation eases from the extremely high levels – just as it did in the 1990s.
Chinese economic data for the first two months of the year were mixed. On the one hand, industrial production and fixed asset investment growth came in above consensus estimates, accelerating to 7.0% y/y (vs. expectations of 5.2% y/y) and 4.2% y/y (vs.…
Indicators continue to point to resilient US housing market dynamics. The NAHB Housing Market Index increased for the fourth consecutive month to an 8-month high of 51 in March, beating expectations it would remain unchanged at 48. Increases across all three…
Singapore non-oil exports (NODX) largely disappointed in February, contracting by 4.8% m/m following a 2.3% m/m expansion in January, and falling below expectations of a milder 0.5% m/m decline. In a similar vein, the 0.1% y/y decline in February fell below…
In a recent Insight we highlighted that the selloff in the price of iron ore – which is down 25.4% year-to-date – is sending a pessimistic signal on China’s economy, suggesting that the current rally in Chinese stocks is unlikely to persist over a cyclical…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, the impact of the global savings glut is among the four structural trends that will drive EM debt going forward. As an asset traditionally further out on the risk curve, EMD is sensitive to…