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Economy

China's Cyclical Outlook: What Would It Take To Become More Positive?
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, a very substantial PSL financing scheme for housing, a large LG and LGFV debt swap, and considerable fiscal transfers to households—or a combination thereof— might lead them to upgrade their…
Daily Insights
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Take Profits On Inflation Hedges

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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The Golden Rule Of Investing In UK Linkers
Special Report

In this Special Report, we introduce our UK Linkers Golden Rule – a framework to profitably trade and invest in UK inflation-linked bonds versus nominal UK gilts. The Rule is currently signaling that nominal Gilts should outperform UK linkers over the next year as UK inflation slows.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper
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No Game Changer

The stimulus measures announced at last week's NPC were not a game changer. As in 2023, we expect aggregate government spending will fall short of the budgeted amount again this year.

China Investment Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Jing Sima, Arthur Budaghyan
Long-Term US Consumer Inflation Expectations Tick Up
Results of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed an uptick in medium- and long-term inflation expectations in February. Specifically, the three-year ahead measure rebounded from a record low of 2.4% to 2.7% and the five-year ahead gauge…
Daily Insights
US Unemployment Rate Climbs To 2-Year High
The US employment situation report sent a mixed signal on Friday. While total nonfarm payrolls rose by 275 thousand jobs in February, exceeding the 200 thousand expected, the previous two months’ numbers were revised lower by 167 thousand jobs (see Indicator…
Daily Insights
A Downward Bias In US Nonfarm Payroll Revisions
For the past year, relatively large downward revisions have been key features of the monthly US nonfarm payrolls reports. Friday’s release was no exception. Although it showed the magnitude of job gains beat expectations in February, estimates for December…
Daily Insights
Japan: Q4 GDP Expansion Raises Odds Of BoJ Hike
Japanese equities and government bonds sold off on Monday and the yen strengthened following the release of the revised Q4 GDP report showing the economy expanded by an annualized 0.4% q/q in Q4 2023 versus earlier estimates of a 0.4% contraction. A…
Daily Insights
ECB: On Track For A June Rate Cut
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, last week’s ECB meeting confirmed their long-held view that the most likely date for the first ECB rate cut would be June. The ECB continues to acknowledge that the European economy is soft…
Daily Insights
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Roundtable Follow-Up: Talking To Clients

Clients are increasingly more positive about the US economy, but there are no signs of exuberance. The rally could continue as the majority is not fully invested. Financial conditions have already eased, and the Fed is unlikely to surprise on the upside but will deliver a promised cut this summer. CRE is a still pain point of the US economy. We are not bearish, but after a fast and furious rally, markets are fragile.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel

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