Economy
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, European stocks will be the big winners of the 2020s. Every decade has a big loser and a big winner. Which stock market will be the winner through the remaining two-thirds of the 2020s? The…
Comments on yesterday’s CPI report and yield moves.
Our Valentine’s Day report is about two love stories: the infatuation with US tech and China’s infatuation with housing. We describe how these love stories will end, and why Europe could be the winner.
The US CPI report for January showed inflation did not cool as much as anticipated. Headline inflation accelerated from 0.23% to 0.31% on a month-over-month basis, higher than anticipations of 0.2% m/m. It fell from 3.4% to 3.1% on a year-over-year basis,…
We highlighted in a recent Insight that positive economic surprises are prompting economists to revise up their US economic growth expectations. The Goldilocks narrative is supporting the rally in risk assets. However, results of the January NFIB survey…
The German economy was a laggard at the end of last year, posting a 0.3% q/q real GDP contraction in Q4 2023 while the broader Eurozone economy stagnated. Importantly, while economists have been revising up their 2024 forecasts for the US economy, they have…
The Swiss franc is among the worst performing major currencies so far this year. This marks a reversal following its stellar performance last year. The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) support for the domestic currency is behind last year’s strength.…
BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service created a sector selection scorecard based on performance of sectors under various macroeconomic regimes. The current macroeconomic backdrop is characterized by the following regimes: Impending rate…
Indian economic data releases delivered a positive signal on Monday. CPI inflation slowed from 5.7% y/y to 5.1% y/y in January – within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 2-6% target range. Meanwhile, industrial production growth accelerated from 2.4% y/y to…
Results of the US Conference Board’s latest quarterly survey show an improvement in sentiment among business leaders. The CEO Confidence measure rose above 50 for the first time in two years – indicating that optimists now outnumber pessimists. CEOs are more…