Economy
As expected, the Fed decided to keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The changes to the Fed Statement generally indicate that the central bank is preparing to move towards easing monetary policy. Specifically, the…
China’s official NBS PMI indicates that growth conditions remain sluggish. Although the composite index ticked up from 50.3 to 50.9, it is still barely in expansionary territory. Notably, the manufacturing PMI – which inched up by 0.2 points in January –…
The strong H2/2023 rally in global credit markets can be attributed to lower global inflation and the associated reduction in global interest rate volatility. However, our colleagues at BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service argue that credit…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service investors should remain long NOK/SEK. The Norges Bank kept policy on hold last week, but the bullish case for the NOK (albeit over the short term) remains in place. There were no major…
We describe and explain the wide disparity of wage inflation across G7 economies, and discuss what it means for the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ policy moves in the coming year. Plus: we highlight two investments ripe for reversal, and two investments ripe for rebound.
The December JOLTS survey delivered a positive surprise on Tuesday. Job openings rose from an upwardly revised 8.93 million in November to a three month high of 9.03 million in December, beating expectations of 8.75 million. In addition, the hiring rate…
Investors are likely to pay close attention to the Fed’s communication on Wednesday for clues about the likely timing of the first rate cut. For now, markets are assigning slightly higher odds to the central bank standing pat in March – a change from a month…
Over the past few months, we have been highlighting that several indicators are pointing to an industrial recovery in Europe. Notably, Swedish indicators were a cause for optimism. The Swedish PMI’s new orders-to-inventories ratio has rebounded sharply over…
S&P 500 Margins: Race To The Bottom - Unit Labor Costs vs Pricing Power
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This week is set to be a busy one for the US market. On the policy front, there is the Wednesday FOMC meeting which will give insight into the Fed’s latest thinking regarding the timing of rate cuts. On the data front, there is the Friday Jobs report which…