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Economy

Favor European Peripheral Bonds Over High Yield Credit
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European sovereign bonds in the periphery offer more upside than high-yield (HY) corporate bonds. Many question the outlook for peripheral bonds in Europe due to the ECB’s shrinking balance…
Daily Insights
Can Cyclicals' Outperformance Persist?
Since the low of 27 October last year, MSCI US has rallied by 19.1% and this rally has been firmly driven by cyclical sectors. Performance-wise Information Technology (IT), Communication Services and Financials and Real Estate have been the top performing…
Daily Insights
Dallas Fed Survey Corroborates Pessimistic Signal From Other Regional Fed Banks
Results of regional Fed surveys suggest that the US manufacturing sector is starting the year on a weak footing. Monday’s report from the Dallas Fed– the last to release its results for January – showed the headline manufacturing activity index collapse from…
Daily Insights
Will The Magnificent Seven Continue To Power The US Equity Rally?
This week is set to be a busy one for the US market. On the policy front, there is the Wednesday FOMC meeting which will give insight into the Fed’s latest thinking regarding the timing of rate cuts. On the data front, there is the Friday Jobs report which…
Daily Insights
Deflationary Pressures Are Dampening Chinese Industrial Profits
China’s industrial profits registered their second consecutive annual contraction last year, falling by 2.3% in 2023. The full year contraction comes despite a surge in industrial profits near year-end. Profit growth came in at 16.8% y/y in December…
Daily Insights
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Happily Ever After?

A recent slew of macroeconomic data has reassured us that the runway to a recession is longer than many thought. However, that positive realization comes with two caveats. First, the Fed pivot is not imminent, and the magnitude of rate cuts may disappoint. Second, the recession has been delayed but not avoided. Further, geopolitical risk is elevated. We will overweight Tech on the next dip and upgrade Retail to an overweight.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
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A Nascent Mini Cycle

Is the rebound in European PMIs enough to boost the appeal of European risk assets?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso
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GFIS Model Bond Portfolio 2023 Review & 2024 Outlook: Once More, With Feeling

We present the performance review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio for 2023. We also discuss the outlook for 2024 performance based on our Key Views for the year. The portfolio is positioned to benefit from a year where the global backdrop will be one of weak growth and further declines in inflation, leading central bank to begin cutting interest rates.

Global Fixed Income Strategy
A Goldilocks US Economy?
Friday’s US Personal Income and Outlays report for December delivered a positive update on the US economy. On the growth side, the data confirm the signal from the Q4 GDP release that consumer spending continues to power the US economy. The robust 0.5%…
Daily Insights
Balance Of Payments Matter For The USD
While balance of payments (BoP) do not really matter for day-to-day FX considerations, they do matter over the long term. According to BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategists, at high levels of US dollar valuation like today, the current account balance tends to…
Daily Insights

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