Economy
After falling throughout most of the second half of 2023, the US economic surprise index has surged over the past few weeks, indicating that economic conditions are firm at the start of the year. Indeed, Manufacturing PMIs delivered a positive signal last…
In this Insight our Equity Analyzer team explores how the S&P 500 behaves when the Fed Funds Target Rate drops by 25bps – 150bps within a single year. The current dot plot is signaling 75bps of cuts by the end of the year, the mid-point of the range.…
Our thoughts on bond positioning following this morning’s employment data.
The Saudi economy is facing internal and external headwinds. The geopolitical conflict is also escalating in the Middle East. EM equity portfolios should stay neutral on Saudi stocks. EM sovereign credit portfolios should upgrade Saudi Arabia from neutral to overweight.
As expected, the Bank of England voted to keep its bank rate unchanged at 5.25% on Thursday – maintaining policy on hold for the fourth consecutive meeting. Two of the nine MPC members voted in favor of a 25bps rise (one less than in December) while one…
Given the huge disparities in wage inflation between the US, euro area and UK, it is remarkable that the markets are pricing near-identical rate cuts from the Fed, ECB, and BoE of around 150 bps through 2024. Assuming central banks don’t behave recklessly –…
The late-2023 broad-based rally across major global financial assets fizzled at the start of this year, with most of the assets we track selling off in January. Chinese stocks continued to perform exceptionally poorly, with the investable and domestic…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the US Department of Defense’s (DoD) first-ever industrial policy – dubbed the National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS) – is attempting to reverse post-Cold War decline in the DoD’s…
In this Insight, we share our thoughts on yesterday’s FOMC meeting and the Fed’s likely next moves, with implications for US bond strategy.
In this Special Report, we update our thinking on the Hong Kong SAR dollar peg, with implications for domestic asset markets.