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Economy

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The Primary Election Is Over

The US primary election is effectively over. The Biden-Trump rematch – our base case since 2022 – is all but set in stone. Only a health issue or freak incident could change that now.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
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Five Black Swans For 2024

Middle East conflict, extreme US policy uncertainty, Chinese economic slowdown, US-Russian proxy war, and Asian military conflicts do not create a stable investment backdrop for 2024. Our top five “black swan” risks may be highly improbable, but they stem from these underlying trends.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
US Flash PMIs Contradict Signal From Regional Fed Surveys
Flash PMIs sent a generally positive update on economic activity across major DM economies in January – particularly in the case of manufacturing. In the US, the composite index rose to a 7-month high of 52.3, beating expectations it would remain broadly…
Daily Insights
China's RRR Cut Is Not Enough
Chinese policymakers have ramped up their efforts to support the economy and financial markets over the past few days. On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced that on February 5 it will cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage…
Daily Insights
The Greenback Is Enjoying A Good Start To The Year
The US dollar has started the year on a strong note with the DXY gaining 2.6% since it bottomed on December 27. Multiple forces are behind this appreciation. Investors have been scaling back their expectations of Fed rate hikes this year. A March rate cut is…
Daily Insights
Bank of Canada: Inching Towards Easier Policy
The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept rates steady at yesterday’s monetary policy meeting, leaving its policy rate at 5%. The central bank presented updated economic projections in a new Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which were little changed from the last MPR in…
Daily Insights
China's PSL Relaunch: A Game Changer?
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the current Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) program will provide much less support to the housing market and construction activity than the 2015-2018 program. China’s central bank…
Daily Insights
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China: Challenges Tackling Deflation

There is no easy way for China to forestall deflation. Provided policymakers are still reluctant to unleash large-size stimulus, more economic disappointments are likely in the coming months, and Chinese stocks will continue to sell off. The yuan is at risk of further depreciation versus the US dollar.

China Investment Strategy by Qingyun Xu
Will The BoJ Contribute To A Yen Rebound?
As expected, the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy stance at its meeting on Tuesday, making no changes in interest rates or yield curve control. The monetary policy statement highlighted that elevated uncertainty around the economic…
Daily Insights
A Red Flag From Global Cyclical Assets
The S&P 500 notched a fresh record high on Tuesday for the third session in a row, bringing its year-to-date gains to 2.0%. Yet as we highlighted in a recent Insight, the lack of a broad-based rally across all S&P 500 sectors raises some concerns…
Daily Insights

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