Economy
We share the edited transcript of a webinar we participated in discussing global trade, trade wars and tariffs, as well as de-risking strategies.
In this note, we preview the Q4-2023 earnings season and share what we will be watching.
On the surface, domestic economic data painted a mixed picture of conditions in China at the end of 2023. On the positive side, the December trade data beat expectations. The dollar value of Chinese imports expanded by 0.2% y/y, surprising anticipations…
Chinese credit dynamics remain muted with the expansion in total social financing easing from 2.45 trillion yuan to 1.94 trillion yuan in December, below expectations of a tamer slowdown to 2.16 trillion yuan. Loan growth also disappointed, with the 1.17…
The Treasury curve bull steepened meaningfully on Friday with the 2-year yield falling by nearly 11 basis points versus the 3 basis point decline in the 10-year yield. A softer than anticipated US PPI release prompted this move. The unexpected 0.1% m/m…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the EV boom, much like the initial auto revolution over a century ago, could experience several disruptions. Buying diesel-engine era heroes can act as a call option on coming EV market…
After a tumultuous year, our Equity Analyzer team took stock on how the BCA Score faired globally. The indices are constructed for each region by selecting the top 10% of stocks with a market-cap above 1 billion USD according to their BCA Score. All indices…
In light of the hotter-than-expected US CPI report, we look at what interest rate currency investors should focus on. Our conclusion largely keeps our existing trades in place, as published in our outlook, a few weeks ago.
US CPI inflation for December came in slightly hotter than anticipated. Headline inflation accelerated from 0.1% to 0.3% on a month-over-month basis and rose from 3.1% to 3.4% on a year-over-year basis. Both the monthly and yearly changes in headline…
The best leading indicator for post-pandemic US wage inflation is the ratio of job vacancies to ‘bad’ unemployment (V/U), where bad unemployment refers to ‘job losers not on temporary layoff’. This ratio has already declined from 6.4 to 4.1 and wage…