Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Economy

f_image_20231122_163126.PNG
The US Labor Market Is Slowing, But Is It Signaling Recession?

We investigate the recent increase in unemployment with the goal of determining whether it is flagging an imminent US recession.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
f_image_20231122_111402.PNG
Poland: The Post-Election Market Strategy

Poland’s inflation will stay elevated. And yet, its return to the European mainstream has improved its financial market outlook. Accordingly, we are recommending new trades on Polish equity, fixed income, and currency.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
Canadian Inflation Continues To Cool
Tuesday’s CPI release confirmed that the disinflationary trend in Canada remains intact. After a brief relapse this summer, Canada’s inflation is headed in the right direction. As anticipated, headline CPI inflation came in at 3.1% y/y in October, down from…
Daily Insights
Proceeding Carefully
The minutes of the Fed's latest FOMC meeting revealed that there is a consensus among policymakers to proceed carefully. Another rate increase is appropriate only if "incoming inflation indicated that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective was…
Daily Insights
On Shifting Market Narratives
After dipping into negative territory between June and early August, the Global Economic Surprise Index has since rebounded, signalling an improvement in economic momentum. Initially, this rebound was isolated to the US. However, the trend has been broadening…
Daily Insights
Pricing Power Is Fading But There Are A Few Holdouts
Inflation has been in a downtrend for a few months now, which has translated into fading corporate pricing power. With wage growth still strong, and the cost of energy on the rise, the degree of companies’ pricing power differentiates their ability to protect…
Daily Insights
Mid-Caps Are More Financially Stable Than Small-Caps
According to BCA Research's US Equity Strategy service, mid-caps underperform when spreads widen, although less so than Small as they are more financially robust and have better credit ratings. Small is the most leveraged relative to income (EBITDA) and…
Daily Insights
f_image_20231121_122008.PNG
Mid-caps: The Best Of Both Worlds

Mid-caps are the best of both worlds and are an excellent strategic overweight thanks to their size premium, but also better financial quality and higher dividend yield than Small. We are bullish on Mid near term and believe that this may be a great trade. We will initiate a position in the S&P 400 as a tactical overweight but will monitor it very closely.

Equity Analyzer by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
f_image_20231120_191506.PNG
The Midwest: The Pivot Of US History

President Biden is facing foreign challenges on three fronts and these challenges are coalescing around the critical states of the Midwest. Take risks off the table and stay defensive in 2024.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
Taiwanese Export Orders: Signal Or Noise?
To the extent that Taiwanese export orders act as a bellwether for global trade dynamics, we often monitor the release to gain a sense of the state of the manufacturing cycle. On this front, the October update provided a positive signal. The pace of decline…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics