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Economy

Sugar Is Bucking The Trend
Agriculture commodity prices have been on a steady decline for over a year. Since peaking in mid-May 2022, the GSCI Agriculture index has dropped by 34% -- nearly half of which occurred in 2023. The weakness is generally broad-based. Corn prices are down 32%,…
Daily Insights
Treasury Yields And The Relative Performance Of Cyclical Equities
Our equally weighted global cyclical equity index has outperformed equally weighted defensives for most of this year. By October 17, this outperformance stood at about 12.6%. This outperformance is consistent with US Treasury market dynamics. The relative…
Daily Insights
Reasons For A Later Recession Start Date
BCA Research's Global Investment Strategy service assigns 25% odds of the recession starting in 2025 or later.  Our colleagues continue to think that the US will succumb to a recession in 2024, probably in the second half of the year. They see the…
Daily Insights
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Recap Of Q3 Earnings: Looking Ahead

Q3 earnings commentary has been broadly positive, despite intensifying macro headwinds. Going forward, a negative growth outlook and geopolitical risks, are a threat to buoyant earnings expectations. We project that earnings growth for 2024 will move lower than currently projected - a negative for equities. This Santa Claus rally is unlikely to be the start of a new bull market.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
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Waiting For The Recession

European markets have room to rebound in the coming weeks, however, a recession looms. What are the lessons from history that investors can use to position themselves under these conditions?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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An Investors' Guide To The 2023 Dutch Snap Election

The Netherlands has a healthier and more stable economy and demography than its European peers. Investors should stay overweight developed European equities, including Dutch equities, relative to emerging European equities.

Geopolitical Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken
US Policy Is Restrictive, But Inflation Expectations Are Still High
The preliminary release for the University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey sent a pessimistic signal about consumer sentiment on Friday. The headline index fell from 63.8 to 60.4 in November, below expectations of a marginal decrease to 63.7. Declines in both…
Daily Insights
Weak UK Economy Raises Likelihood BoE Leads Pivot To Easing
The UK economy stagnated in Q3 – a deterioration from the minor 0.2% q/q expansion in the prior quarter. Although the Q3 figure is slightly better than anticipations of a 0.1% q/q contraction, the details of the report are generally weak. Consumption dropped…
Daily Insights
A Return To Positive Earnings Growth In Q3
The Q3 earnings season is nearing its end. By Friday, 92% of S&P 500 companies had already reported and thus far the results are positive. According to FactSet, the S&P 500's 4.1% y/y blended earnings growth rate is the first earnings expansion since…
Daily Insights
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Month-In-Review: If A Recession Is Averted For Now, Then Short The Dollar

In this report, we go around the globe and survey the near-term outlook for G10 currencies. Our longer-term view on the dollar has been clear, we are sellers. In this report, we review if a tactical sell is also warranted given incoming data and the message from our models.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor

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