Economy
The Q3 earnings season is nearing its end. By Friday, 92% of S&P 500 companies had already reported and thus far the results are positive. According to FactSet, the S&P 500's 4.1% y/y blended earnings growth rate is the first earnings expansion since…
In this report, we go around the globe and survey the near-term outlook for G10 currencies. Our longer-term view on the dollar has been clear, we are sellers. In this report, we review if a tactical sell is also warranted given incoming data and the message from our models.
The recent rate hike by the Philippines central bank cannot control food inflation. Nor can it stem the currency slide.
Results from Tuesday’s elections suggest that the Democrats are doing better than what their 2024 polling are showing. While the results are marginally positive for equities, investors should not overrate this off-year election, especially considering the slowing economy and the many foreign challenges facing the US.
China's CPI and PPI inflation release for October indicates that deflationary pressures continue to dominate the domestic economy. After remaining unchanged in September, consumer prices declined by 0.2% y/y last month, falling below consensus estimates of a…
After surging in H2 2021/H1 2022, the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker has been on a general downtrend for over a year. The latest reading of 5.2% in October – albeit unchanged from September – is considerably below the peak of 6.7% just over a year ago.…
In the short run – i.e., over the current Northern Hemisphere winter – natural gas storage levels will be sufficient to balance heating and industrial demand with flowing supplies, assuming a normal winter in the EU and US, according to our colleagues at BCA…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the ECB is the central bank that poses the lowest risk of repeating the mistakes of the 1970s and letting inflation expectations unanchor. One reason is the ECB’s inherited Germanic anti-inflation DNA. Even…
The US disinflationary trend remains intact. The core PCE deflator continued its downtrend in September, falling to 3.7% y/y from a peak of 5.6% in February 2022. Alternative measures of underlying price pressures such as the trimmed mean and median PCE…
US small-cap stocks have underperformed significantly this year. While the S&P 500 price index is up 14.0% year-to-date, the S&P 600 has lost 2.5%. However, this underperformance has not been a straight line down. Small caps benefited from a…