Economy
The Vicious Troika remains a long-term threat, but over the short term, rates will likely have another leg down on growth concerns, offering support to equities, which are now fairly valued and are no longer overbought. Longer-term outlook remains negative. The Magnificent Seven will likely lead a tactical rebound. Overweight Growth vs Value and FSemis.
Economic growth has little to no relationship with long-term country returns. But if GDP doesn’t drive long-term equity returns, then what does? To find out, we break down equity total returns of 33 countries from 1997 to 2022 into seven components. In line with other academic research, we find that, over our sample, net buybacks were a crucial factor for long-term country performance. Our research suggests that equity issuance is an underestimated driver of returns that investors should pay more attention to.
We consider several uncertainties in this week’s report, from the interest rate outlook to the source of the mountain of cash households have amassed since the pandemic began. We have not adjusted our tactical asset-allocation recommendations but will do so soon to align with the defensive cast of our cyclical recommendations.
The Eurozone’s inflation will continue to slow over the coming months. While this trend will help Bund prices, will it boost the appeal of European equities?
