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Economy

Is China's Economy Healing?
Chinese economic data surprised to the upside on Wednesday. GDP expanded by 4.9% y/y in Q3 – beating expectations of a 4.5% y/y rise. On a quarterly basis, economic activity accelerated from 0.5% q/q to 1.3% q/q – also ahead of anticipations of 0.9% q/q.…
Daily Insights
US Beige Book: Stable Or Slightly Weaker Growth Outlook
Stronger-than-anticipated retail sales and nonfarm payroll employment in September indicate that conditions are still favorable for US consumers. Similarly, the latest reading from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model stands at 5.4% for Q3 – well above estimates of…
Daily Insights
S&P 500: A Look Under The Hood
S&P 500: A Look Under The Hood …
Daily Insights
Inflation Remains A Big Headache For The Bank Of England
The data releases this week in the UK were disappointing for those that have been looking for a major downshift in UK inflation – most importantly, the Bank of England (BoE). The CPI report for September came in above expectations at 0.5% month-on-month…
Daily Insights
The Real Culprit For The 1970s Stagflation Was Not Oil
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, a fundamental question for investors is, will central banks fail to exorcise the pandemic’s lingering inflationary shock, just as they failed to exorcise the inflationary shock that came from the collapse of…
Daily Insights
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Avoiding The Mistakes Of The 1970s

The Hamas attack against Israel, timed almost 50 years to the day after a similar surprise attack on Yom Kippur of 1973, has evoked parallels with the 1970s. Parallels not only with Middle Eastern geopolitics then and now, but also with inflation, economics, and financial markets. In this report, we explain what went wrong in the 1970s and whether the mistakes will be repeated. Plus: the sharp sell-offs in some Latin American currencies are reaching a potential turning-point.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
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Does The Bear-Steepener Have Legs?

The recent bear-steepening of the US Treasury curve has been driven by the combination of stronger-than-expected economic growth and stable Fed rate expectations. Historically, such periods do not last very long, and we see the current bear-steepening episode ending soon. We also highlight an opportunity in Agency MBS.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Resilient US Retail Sales Growth In September
The US retail sales report delivered a sanguine update on US consumption. Overall spending increased by 0.7% m/m in September – above expectations of a 0.3% m/m rise and following an upwardly revised 0.8% m/m in August. The details of the report were also…
Daily Insights
Singapore NODX: The Contraction Eases
Singapore is a small open economy that is highly sensitive to fluctuations in global and Asian economic activity. This characteristic makes its exports a good bellwether for global growth. On this front, the upside surprise in Singapore's non-oil domestic…
Daily Insights
Greeting The Q3 Earnings Season
Friday the 13th marked the official start of the Q3-2023 earnings season. While the consensus is for modest earnings and sales growth, there may be some surprises in store for investors.  Street Expectations According to Refinitiv IBES, analysts…
Daily Insights

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