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Economy

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Maintain Trades Ahead Of The BoC

In this insight, we look at whether the recent data justifies a shift by the BoC, and some potential trades.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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Maintain Trades Ahead Of The BoC

In this insight, we look at whether the recent data justifies a shift by the BoC, and some potential trades.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Eurozone Sentiment: A Self-Defeating Upswing?
The European Commission's preliminary release for Consumer Confidence painted a murky picture for consumer sentiment on Monday. The headline print of -17.9 was largely unchanged from the previous month's print of -17.8, but beat expectations of -18.3.…
Daily Insights
Chinese Stocks Weaken Despite Upside Economic Data Surprises
China's CSI 300 equity index fell below its March 2020 pandemic low on Monday, bringing its loss since the February 2021 peak to -40%. Similarly, BCA Research's market-based China growth indicator – a broader measure of the performance of Chinese financial…
Daily Insights
US Equal Weighted Equities Have Given Up YTD Gains
This year's rally in US equities has for the most part been narrow in breadth. The 19.5% increase in the S&P 500's price index in the first seven months of the year exceeds the equal weighted index's 9.5% gain over the same period. Since then, the S&P…
Daily Insights
What The US Banks See
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service studied the SIFIs’ earnings calls for insights into borrower performance, lender willingness, liquidity and the actions and intentions of households and businesses.  Nothing in the banks’ commentary…
Daily Insights
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The Big Bank Beige Book, October 2023

The biggest banks report that consumer credit card delinquencies still have yet to get back to pre-COVID levels and other credit performance indicators, leading and lagging, remain solid. There is still a great deal of cash sloshing around the banking system, though consumption has clearly slowed. We reiterate our view that a recession is coming, but not before the year is out.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Eurozone: Recession Postponed, Not Cancelled

Europe’s weak patch is not about the ECB’s policy tightening, at least not yet. 2024 is another story, and the ECB’s policy will prompt a Eurozone’s recession around the summer.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Chinese Construction: Implications For Metals
Earlier this year we highlighted that China's property market dynamics pose a greater risk to the price of steel vis-à-vis copper. This view was based on the expectation that Chinese policymakers will direct financing towards the completion of unfinished and…
Daily Insights
A Bottom-Up Approach To Country Selection
A powerful feature of the Equity Analyzer platform is its breadth of coverage: roughly 13 thousand stocks trading on MSCI Developed Market exchanges. Since we have a cross-section of the same stock level data across multiple regions, we can aggregate this…
Daily Insights

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