Economy
A powerful feature of the Equity Analyzer platform is its breadth of coverage: roughly 13 thousand stocks trading on MSCI Developed Market exchanges. Since we have a cross-section of the same stock level data across multiple regions, we can aggregate this…
According to BCA Research's Global Investment Strategy service, the global economy will stay buoyant over the next few quarters but will then sour as the lagged effects of higher interest rates and tighter bank lending standards work their way through the…
There is a high probability that the global economy will tip into recession in the second half of 2024. A long yen position is an excellent hedge against that risk.
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index's 0.7% m/m decline in September sent a weaker-than-anticipated signal about the outlook for the US economy. It fell below anticipations that the pace of decline would remain unchanged at -0.4% m/m and marks the…
Fed Chair Jay Powell's speech at the Economic Club of New York on Thursday corroborates the signal from other recent Fedspeak that policymakers may not need to hike rates again. He highlighted that although inflation is still too high, price pressures are…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service is maintaining a tactical neutral duration stance to begin Q4. The team believes the risk/reward on US Treasuries has improved substantially after latest backup in yields, with the market now discounting…
Chinese economic data surprised to the upside on Wednesday. GDP expanded by 4.9% y/y in Q3 – beating expectations of a 4.5% y/y rise. On a quarterly basis, economic activity accelerated from 0.5% q/q to 1.3% q/q – also ahead of anticipations of 0.9% q/q.…
Stronger-than-anticipated retail sales and nonfarm payroll employment in September indicate that conditions are still favorable for US consumers. Similarly, the latest reading from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model stands at 5.4% for Q3 – well above estimates of…
US equities have somewhat stabilized since the beginning of October. After falling by 6.6% in the prior two months, the S&P 500 ended the day on Wednesday 0.6% above where it was at the end of September. Indeed, recent hard data have been on the firm…
The data releases this week in the UK were disappointing for those that have been looking for a major downshift in UK inflation – most importantly, the Bank of England (BoE). The CPI report for September came in above expectations at 0.5% month-on-month…