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Economy

EM Equities: An Attractive Opportunity?
Emerging Market equities have been in a broad trading range all year. The MSCI index peaked on January 26, then bottomed in mid-March before recouping nearly all of its losses over the subsequent months. However, after nearly reaching its February top at the…
Daily Insights
Oil + Gas Capex Levels, Growth Dwarf Copper
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the global energy transition will become more disorderly, if oil-and-gas capex growth continues to outpace that of critical minerals.   The trajectories of capex investment in…
Daily Insights
An Air Pocket

The bear market in US bonds will likely end with a bang rather than a whimper. Even during the secular US bond bull market of 1982-2021, cyclical bond bear markets ended only after an eruption of financial turmoil. It would be strange if this current ascent in bond yields ended without significant casualties in the global financial system.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Copper + Metals Capex Growth Lags Oil + Gas

The global energy transition will become more disorderly, if oil-and-gas capex growth continues to outpace that of critical minerals. We remain long exposure to the equities of oil and gas producers via the XOP ETF; the COMT ETF to retain direct commodity exposure, and $100/bbl December 2024 Brent calls. Slower supply growth of metals facing off against steadily increasing demand also favors exposure to metals miners and refiners via the XME ETF.

Commodity & Energy Strategy
The Signal From Stronger-Than-Expected US Durable Goods Orders
US durable goods order delivered a positive surprise on Wednesday. New orders unexpectedly expanded by 0.2% m/m in August, beating expectations of a 0.5% m/m decline. Similarly, core capital goods orders (a proxy for business spending plans) and core capital…
Daily Insights
China: No Need For A Panicked Policy Response
The unexpected increase in Chinese industrial profits in August sent a positive signal about the economy. Industrial profits posted its first year-over-year increase since the second half of last year, surging by 17.2% y/y following a 6.7% y/y contraction in…
Daily Insights
Will The Gold Selloff Continue?
US dollar strength and rising real rates have created a toxic mix for the yellow metal over the past few months. Gold prices have fallen by 7.3% from the May peak and are on track to erase the year-to-date gains. Conditions are unlikely to improve much…
Daily Insights
Fourth Quarter 2023 Strategy Outlook: On A Knife-Edge

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Is That It For US Cyclicals Versus Defensives?
The year-to-date rally in US cyclical stocks has fizzled. After climbing 29% in the first seven months of the year, cyclical equities are down 6.0% since the beginning of August. This drop is happening in the context of a general equity selloff. However, the…
Daily Insights
Are US Equity Valuations Consistent With The Level Of Interest Rates?
One of the few things US equity investors agree upon these days is that the S&P 500 is expensive whether it is relative to history, other asset classes, or the level of interest rates. But how overvalued is the market? To this end, BCA’s US equity…
Daily Insights

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