Economy
Google searches for “inflation” by US users have been on a general downward trend over the past year. This is in line with developments in realized inflation as annual core CPI inflation peaked last September. Similarly, market- and survey-based measures of…
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) sent a pessimistic signal about the global manufacturing cycle on Monday. The 20.1% y/y contraction in August is broadly in line with July’s 20.3% y/y drop and came in below consensus estimates of a 17.1% y/y…
Monetary policy is difficult to calibrate: it is hard to get it just right. The Global Investment Strategy (GIS) service has been iterating that while the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, there is much uncertainty surrounding the idea that the…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service European inflation is likely to remain stubborn through the remainder of the decade, since the working-age population’s decline will keep the labor market tight. European rates have…
The ECB is done lifting interest rate for the cycle and its next move will be a cut next year. Yet, European rates will climb even higher in the second half of the decade.
While we are sympathetic to the view that the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, we are skeptical that it could stick that landing for very long. Stocks could strengthen into year-end, with small caps potentially leading the charge. But the rally will fizzle out next year as the global economy begins to sink into recession.
The US CPI release showed monthly inflation accelerated in August. While the increase in headline inflation from 0.2% m/m to 0.6% m/m was in line with consensus estimates, the core index’s 0.3% m/m rise came in slightly above expectations it would remain…
A sharp drop in the US labor force participation rate was among the pandemic disruptions that contributed to tight labor market conditions. The total participation rate collapsed from 63.3% in February 2020 to 60.1% in April 2020. The decline over those two…
The Euro Area’s industrial production figures for July sent a disappointing signal on Wednesday. The 1.1% m/m decline in output fell below expectations of a smaller 0.9% m/m decrease. On a year-over-year basis, IP contracted for the third consecutive month,…
The CRB Raw Industrials Price Index has been relatively stable over most of 2023. To the extent that the index contains non-tradable raw materials such as burlap, hide, rosin, and tallow, it is less influenced by speculative activity than the prices of other…