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Economy

Fed’s Waller Signals Pause
In a Tuesday morning television interview, Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled that the Fed will not lift rates when it meets later this month. Specifically, Waller echoed language used by Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole conference by saying that recent…
Daily Insights
Sector Chartpack: The State Of The American Consumer

The resiliency of consumers through 2023 has surprised investors. However, consumer strength will fade into yearend as factors supporting growth in income and spending are waning. i.e., job gains are slowing, wage growth is decelerating, and excess savings are running out. Consumers are starting to feel the pressure from tighter monetary policy as financial obligations rise. Hence, as consumer spending decelerates, economic growth will slow into yearend. We confirm our underweight of the Consumer Discretionary sector.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Global Manufacturing Downturn Slows
The Global Manufacturing PMI suggests that although the global manufacturing downturn remains intact, the pace of deterioration slowed in August. The headline PMI index ticked up by 0.4 points to 49. In particular, the Output, New Orders, and New Export…
Daily Insights
Goldilocks?
Friday’s US employment report suggests that the softening of the labor market is continuing at a steady pace. Although nonfarm payroll employment in June and July was revised down by 110 thousand, the 187 thousand increase in August came in above expectations…
Daily Insights
Unsupervised Indicators Signal High Probability Of An Equity Reversal
Unsupervised methods, like Principal Component Analysis (PCA), can create powerful indicators that are based purely on the structure of the data and void of researcher bias. Therefore, they can provide agnostic evidence to support BCA’s fundamental,…
Daily Insights
A New Currency Regime?
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service much of the new BRICS+ countries lack the fundamental basis of making a credible monetary union. A reserve currency needs the military might to control the trading routes necessary to maintain…
Daily Insights
More Evidence For The Soft Landing

US bond investment takeaways from this week’s PCE and employment releases.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Monthly Portfolio Update: Recession Postponed – But Not Avoided

A global recession continues to be likely over the next 12 months. The impact of tighter monetary policy is slowly being felt. Government bonds look increasingly attractive as a safe haven.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Remedying China’s Economic Malaise (Part 2)

In Part 2 of this series, we prescribe the treatment needed to produce a recovery for the ailing Chinese economy. Authorities will only panic and unleash “irrigation-style” stimulus if the unemployment rate rises sharply, or a financial crisis unravels in onshore markets. This is not yet the case.

Emerging Markets Strategy, China Investment Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Resilient US Consumption, Moderating Inflation
The US Personal Income and Outlays report shows consumption remained resilient in July. Although personal income growth decelerated from 0.3% m/m to 0.2% m/m, spending accelerated from an upwardly revised 0.6% m/m to 0.8% m/m – above expectations of 0.7% m/m.…
Daily Insights

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