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Economy

The Most Important Charts For The Next Dollar Move

In this week’s report, we assess the key reasons why the dollar has risen, and if that is set to continue.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Contracting Exports Weigh On China's Renminbi
The Chinese yuan fell to its lowest in nearly 16 years vis-à-vis the US dollar on Thursday following the release of Chinese trade data. Although the pace of export contraction slowed from 14.5% to 8.8% y/y in August (and was slightly better than anticipations…
Daily Insights
The US Market Reigns Supreme
Strategists arguing for an end of the outperformance of US equities over international stocks have pointed to the lofty valuations of American stocks vis-à-vis their global counterparts. Moreover, they have highlighted that US tech companies, which have led…
Daily Insights
Bond Yields And Cyclicals Versus Defensives
Since the beginning of the year, our equally-weighted global cyclicals index has outperformed equally-weighted defensives by about 13%. As the chart above shows, this relative performance trend has been extremely positively correlated with US 10-year…
Daily Insights
Carbon Credits: Short In The Short Run, Long In The Long Run
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the structural bull case for carbon credits remains compelling. However, tactical investors should brace for prices to plateau or even correct over the next 12-to-24 months. The long-term…
Daily Insights
Global Growth: Failing Engines

If we look at global growth as an aircraft, the plane is experiencing failing engines and will lose more altitude in the coming months. Yet, neither Chinese authorities, nor the Fed or the ECB will be quick to come to the rescue as global growth downshifts. These dynamics herald a stronger US dollar and lower EM risk asset prices.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Carbon Credits: Watch Out For The Red Light
Special Report

Carbon credits as an asset class are becoming increasingly investable. Given that the structural bull case for this asset class is compelling, strategic investors should long carbon credits. However tactical investors should book profits or consider merits of a short position, since prices are likely to correct over the next 12-24 months.

Global Investment Strategy by Ritika Mankar
US ISM Services PMI Unexpectedly Rises
The US ISM delivered a positive signal about service sector activity in August. The headline index unexpectedly jumped by 1.8 points to a six-month high of 54.5, surprising expectations of a 0.2-point decline to 52.5. Importantly, the details of the report…
Daily Insights
The BoC Stands Pat
As expected, the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 5% on Wednesday. In particular, the central bank highlighted that domestic economic growth deteriorated. Indeed, last week’s GDP release showed the Canadian economy unexpectedly contracted…
Daily Insights
Goldilocks Is Just A Fairy Tale
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, Goldilocks is just a fairy tale. In the near-term, this will be negative for stocks, neutral for bonds, and positive for the dollar. The Fed can win the war against inflation, but not without much higher…
Daily Insights

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