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Economy

Chile Kicks Off The EM Rate Cutting Cycle
Last Friday, the Central Bank of Chile became the first major Latin American monetary authority to cut rates, thereby beginning the EM monetary easing cycle.  In its latest meeting, board members decided to reduce the policy rate by a whopping 100 basis…
Daily Insights
July Survey Results: H1 2024 US Recession, US Equity Outperformance
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for the US economy, regional equity allocation, and EUR/USD. On the outlook for the US economy, the majority of respondents (59%) expect the next…
Daily Insights
Falling Inflation Could Sow The Seeds Of Its Own Demise
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, it is too early to conclude that the Fed can stop raising rates. Consumption and real income growth are highly correlated. If inflation continues to fall, real wages will rise further. If that…
Daily Insights
The Big Bank Beige Book, July 2023

The latest round of earnings calls from the systemically important banks suggested that the expansion is still intact. Households are still flush and still spending and consumer and business delinquencies remain remarkably low.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Data Dependent

The ECB’s tone has changed decisively. Intransigent forward guidance is gone; data dependency is in. What does this transition mean for the path of European interest rates and the euro?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Distance Makes The Heart Grow Fonder: Webcast Follow-Up

Investors remain cautious about the US economy and still have significant cash that needs to be put to work which could extend the rally further. Earnings rebound later in the year will be supported by rising sales growth and surging earnings of the Magnificent Seven. A restocking cycle, and a pickup in freight activity support transports. Upgrade Transports to an overweight.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
US: Inflationary Pressures Moderate, Consumption Growth Accelerates
US economic data released on Friday continued the string of good news about the US economy. On the inflation front, core PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying price pressures – softened to 0.165% m/m in June. On an annualized basis, this…
Daily Insights
BoJ Commits To "Greater Flexibility"
On Friday, the Bank of Japan announced an important tweak to its yield curve control (YCC) program. Although it maintained the 0.5% cap on 10-year bond yields, it indicated that it will manage the program with “greater flexibility” such that the 0.5% level is…
Daily Insights
On The Broadening US Equity Rally
A narrow equity rally was the key characteristic of the US stock market in the first five months of the year. Despite concerns about the domestic economic situation due to ongoing monetary tightening, and poor external dynamics – China’s underwhelming…
Daily Insights
Taking Stock Of The US Earnings Season
We are now midway through the Q2 2023 earnings season: 254 of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported. It’s therefore worthwhile to stand back and observe some of the emerging trends. According to Refinitiv IBES, 78.7% of companies have reported…
Daily Insights

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