Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Economy

Will US Consumer Discretionary Continue Outperforming?
In the first five months of the year, optimism about GAI (generative AI) drove a narrow rally in US equities. The three sectors that contain companies that are most exposed to this dynamic were the only ones that experienced price gains. IT, Communication…
Daily Insights
US Supply Chain Diversification Benefits Canada And Mexico
China’s slowdown confirms BCA’s Geopolitical Strategists’ view that persisting structural challenges would cause China’s economic reopening to disappoint (see The Numbers). In this context, Canada and Mexico are two notable markets that are largely…
Daily Insights
Cleantech Equities Are Due For A Rebound
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy, clean energy is well poised for a sustained bull market over the long term. Governments around the world are enthusiastically lending their support to the clean energy industry. In the US, the IRA offers…
Daily Insights
How Large Can The Eurozone / US Divergence Get?

In recent months, the European and US economies have greatly diverged, with the Euro Area massively disappointing while the US has surprised to the upside. Can this dichotomy continue or is it Europe’s turn to shine?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Recalibration

The S&P 500 reached our 4,500 mid-year target last week, but the bears have yet to capitulate and stocks could melt up so we are placing a trailing stop on our tactical overweight instead of downgrading equities outright.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
The Signal From Dr. Copper
Copper rallied to a two-month high by the end of last week. Importantly, this move did not occur in isolation. It coincides with greater optimism about the prospects of a soft landing. Indeed, the US economic surprise index is solidly in positive territory…
Daily Insights
Stocks Love Growth
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, stocks fare best when there is plenty of slack in the economy and growth is strong and getting stronger. In classical physics, the trajectory of an object can be described by its position,…
Daily Insights
Gauging The Trajectory Of The Economy (And The Stock Market)

Stocks fare best when there is plenty of slack in the economy and growth is strong and getting stronger. The good news is that the economic growth score for the US in our MacroQuant model is above its historic average. The bad news is that US economy is operating with little slack and sentiment is getting complacent. We recommend that investors maintain a modest overweight to equities for the time being but look to get more defensive later this year or in early 2024.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Chinese Exports: Deepening Contraction
China’s June export data sent a negative signal about global manufacturing conditions. The -12.4% y/y drop in the dollar value of Chinese exports fell below expectations of a -10% y/y decline, registering the steepest annual contraction since February 2020.…
Daily Insights
Beige Book Monitor Signals Slight Improvement In US Activity
The Fed’s latest Beige Book reveals that economic activity rose slightly in recent weeks. The results are based on surveys and interviews conducted across 12 districts through June 30. In particular, two of the districts experienced “slight and modest…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics