Economy

UK disinflation and labor market softening support our overweight in Gilts and short GBP trade. UK CPI came in slightly hotter than expected in May, with headline inflation at 3.4% y/y (vs. 3.5% in April) and core CPI meeting expectations at 3.5%, down from…

1 Tactical SEK Bearishness Backed By Dovish Riksbank …

1 Fed Split On 2025 Cuts, But Cooling Data Supports Dovish Case …

Our Geopolitical strategists expect US involvement in Israel’s military campaign against Iran, raising near-term risks to oil supply and market stability. Iran is likely to retaliate by targeting regional oil production and transport infrastructure,…

1 BoJ: A Balanced Pause …

1 The Swiss Illusion: Strong Fundamentals, Weak Momentum …

ZEW expectations jumped in May, but underlying macro fragility supports a cautious stance on eurozone assets. The ZEW expectations index for the euro area rose to 35.3 from 11.6, with Germany also beating expectations. The current situation component improved…

1 US Retail Worries …

Household data beat in May, but China’s macro story remains fragile, reinforcing our overweight in local government bonds. Traditional supply-side activity decelerated, with industrial production and fixed asset investment both weaker, while retail sales and…

Worsening manufacturing data reinforces our defensive stance as expectations rebound but observed activity continues to deteriorate. The June Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to -16.0 from -9.2, well below estimates. Expectations rebounded, but the…